China Non-Manufacturing Growth At 6-Month High
The growth in Chinese non-manufacturing sector reached a six-month
high in September amid a solid increase in new work, a survey by the
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, or CFLP, and the National
Bureau of Statistics revealed Thursday.
The headline purchasing
managers index for the non-manufacturing sector, which includes services
and construction industries, rose to a six-month high of 55.4 in
September from 53.9 in August.
An reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
new orders index rose to 53.4 in September from 50.9. New export orders
also increased, with the corresponding sub-index advancing to 50.5 from
49.6 in August.
Meanwhile, the business
expectations index fell to 60.1 from 62.9 a month earlier. The
employment index declined to 51.3 from 52.5. Input prices continued to
rise, but the rate of inflation eased from August with the corresponding
index falling to 56.7 from 57.1.
An official survey of the
country's factory sector revealed Tuesday that business activity at
manufacturing firms accelerated modestly in September.
2013-10-03 08:28 GMT (or 10:28 MQ MT5 time| [GBP - Services PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
U.K. Service Sector Expands Strongly
The U.K. service sector continued to perform strongly in September
and thereby round off the best quarterly performance of the sector since
the second quarter of 1997, data from Markit Economics showed Thursday.
The headline Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing &
Supply Purchasing Managers' Index dropped slightly to 60.3 in September
from August's near seven-year high of 60.5.
That signaled another
strong rise in activity on a monthly basis, and extended the current
run of continuous growth to nine months. The sharp increase in activity
was once again supported by incoming new business.
survey showed employment growth accelerating to a solid rate that was
only fractionally lower than June's near six-year high.
operating costs continued to increase during the latest survey period.
Efforts to pass these higher costs onto clients were generally thwarted
by ongoing price competition.
Investor Strategy, Market Crashes
When the stock market decides to take a tumble, how should you react?
Should you hold onto your same positions thinking they will come back,
or should you sell everything and run for cover? Every great thing must
come to an end, and whether it be temporary or long term you have to be
ready at all times. There are tons of different strategies for handling a
big sell off in the market, and if played right you'll be dancing in
the streets while the others lick their wounds.
is so huge when it comes to investing successfully for the average
investor that you could literally host a seminar on it and spend all day
discussing it. The importance of predict and react is to simply have a
plan in place that says, "when x event occurs, than I need to react with
I don't care how many
monitors you have at your trading station and if you boast a $100
million dollar portfolio, you are no future teller with all the answers.
Let's be honest, if we could really predict the stock market time after
time, day after day, we would all be richer than bill gates. Predicting
in the sense of looking into a crystal ball is not predicting at all,
but predicting in the sense of using history or events to prepare for
potential events is real life.
When it comes to the stock market,
there are always signs that come into play, some very obvious and some
very hidden that could mean a sell off or price surge is potentially
around the corner. With stock market crashes it is about your ability to
read the signals, ignore the emotionally driven traders, and follow
your own rules. That's prediction.
you have your strategy in place and the "signs" have shown themselves
to predict a potentially catastrophic event, you need to react. Reacting
effectively in the stock market does not mean using emotional buying or
selling to your ultimate success or failure, it means simply enacting a
plan and sticking to it with discipline.
When it comes to market
crashes this normally means liquidating a decent size portion of your
portfolio, tightening up stops, and either cutting down from new long
positions or completely move to shorting. It doesn't have to be all of
these things, but after a few big losses you'll understand why they are
& P 500 index excluding today and looking just at Tuedsay through
Thursday has lost some 4% in value. Did you know that some traders were
already reacting by selling positions and raising stops on Tuesday if
not late last week? One of the most effective strategies I have come
across and utilized in my own trading comes from CANSLIM
trading style, and the way it is used is simply with the thinking that
after three consecutive distribution days with no accumulation, you
react and put up your defense.
Reacting and putting into a action a
preset plan is actually a lot of fun, very simple, and unemotional
unless you do with it music blaring in a wife beater while smoking a
joint and getting high (no I haven't done it before but just imagine the
hostility). For the average investor (excluding hedge fund managers,
institutions, etc.) there are a few routes you can go which I introduced
Selling Full Positions
current positions is a very easy route to go and unless you are trying
to hold these stocks to take advantage of long term capital gains, this
is an easy call. Using the same 3 distribution days go away strategy
from above, on that 3rd day we would have cashed out on positions. How
much you cash out is up to you, but some options could be to:
This is a fantastic way to prepare for any uncertainties when you want to play your cards tight. Stop loss orders
are extremely effective when used correctly, and I am a promoter to
almost always have stops on your positions regardless. Why? Because you
simply never know what to expect especially in some individual stocks
effected by things like earnings, news releases, and the like.
I say raise stops I am implying you already have stops on your
positions. So, integrating this strategy you up your insurance policy to
get you cashed out faster if a positions decides to head south.
Selling Part of Positions
to selling a position in its entirety, you can instead sell lets say
half of the position and hold the other half to see what happens. This
is a very common way to take profits off the table while still
maintaining control of what you purchased a while back. With money off
the table you can afford to take on the extra risk of your stocks
falling with the market.
Strong & Weak: 3 Reasons to Buy Euro Currency Basket :Talking Points:
This week saw major fundamental news releases such as three central bank
interest rate announcements plus a United States government shutdown.
Despite the heavy week of fundamental releases, currencies saw little
follow through in pricing and minimal change in their relative strength
against one another.
Two weeks ago, we highlighted buying Euro strength through a basket of
currencies. Unfortunately, the timing of the buy signal was off as the
trade stopped out, yet the Euro has still gained strength in general.
That is a good reminder for why it is important to trade in conservative
Therefore, so long as prices are firmly held above the EURJPY support
line and so long as the EURGBP holds above .8330, then we can look for
continued strength in the Euro. The opportunity can be traded by placing
a EUR currency basket buy trade where we buy the Euro against a basket
Last week, we focused on selling an Australian Dollar sell basket. We
will keep that trade open in case the US government shut down and debt
ceiling debacle deteriorate into an anxious market.
2013-10-04 02:49 GMT (or 04:49 MQ MT5 time| [JPY - Interest Rate]
BoJ Holds Monetary Policy Steady
The Bank of Japan on Friday decided to hold its monetary easing plan unchanged while also maintaining its economic assessment.
the end of a two-day meeting of the nine-member Policy Board led by
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the central bank said it will keep the target
for the monetary base expansion at an annual pace of JPY 60-70 trillion.
Additionally, with respect to its asset purchase program, the
BOJ said it will continue to increase its purchases of Japanese
government bonds at an annual pace of about JPY 50 trillion. The average
remaining maturity of the bank's JGB buying will be around seven years.
The Board's decision to refrain from any fresh policy moves was in line with expectations.
is recovering moderately," the central bank said while maintaining its
assessment after an upgrade in September. It also noted that the
year-on-year change in the core consumer price index is now in the range
of 0.5-1 percent.
Meanwhile, the BoJ revised up its view on capital expenditure, saying "business
fixed investment has been picking up as corporate profits have
improved." Business sentiment has continued to improve, it added.
2013-10-04 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time| [CAD - Ivey Purchasing Managers Index]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 51.9 in September
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index was at 51.9 on a seasonally
adjusted basis in September, indicating that purchasing activity in
Canada expanded from August.
The index, which measures changes in economic activity as indicated by
a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada, is sponsored by the
Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University.
An index greater than 50 indicates an expansion of purchasing activity, while an index below 50 indicates a decline.
The employment index for September was at 53.5, indicating employment was higher than in the previous month.
The inventories index was at 54.2, indicating inventories were higher than in the previous month.
The prices index was at 64 in September, indicating prices were higher than in the previous month.
The supplier deliveries index was at 45.3, indicating supplier deliveries were slower than in the previous month.
All figures above are on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The unadjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers Index was at 59.4 in September.
GBP/USD Reverses from Major Market Level; Know these Levels Now
-USDJPY closed the week below the trendline that originates from the
June low. It is possible that a 3 month triangle is complete. This is
the working assumption as long as price is below 98.72.
-The decline from July would consist of 2 equal waves at 94.89. This
level intersects channel support that originates at the July high AND
the channel that originates from the March 2012 high on Wednesday!
-The channels are ‘Elliott’ channels. The short term downward sloping
channel is a corrective channel. The long term upward sloping channel is
an impulsive channel.
Trading Strategy: Picture is bearish below 98.72 but have to be aware of
the mentioned channel confluence as a huge level at 95. What happens
there likely determines the next big move (to either 90 or above the May
Rupee, other forex manipulations face global regulatory probe
As possible manipulation in worldwide forex markets face a global regulatory probe, trades conducted in Indian rupee along with a host of currencies by such manipulators have come under the scanner.
Those suspected to be involved in possible manipulations include some
forex traders, as also certain Swiss banks and other European financial
institutions, while it is unlikely as yet that any Indian bank or financial services firm might be directly involved, sources said.
The issues being probed include possible cartelisation among banks,
mostly from Switzerland and some other European countries, in
manipulating the foreign exchange rates, as also other manipulative practices adopted by the forex traders.
In most likelihood, the possible manipulation in rupee trades might
have taken place outside India, although the role of certain executives
at Indian branches of suspected European banks might not be completely
ruled out, they added. Globally, the foreign exchange market is of huge size with daily average turnover of $ 5.3 trillion, as per the Bank of International Settlement (BIS).
While rupee trades account for just about 1 per cent of the global
market with a daily average turnover of just about $ 53 billion, nearly
half of these trades take place outside India and in jurisdictions
outside the direct regulatory supervision of regulators like the RBI and
the Sebi. Amid a sharp plunge in rupee value till a few weeks ago, concerns were being raised about large NDF (Non Deliverable Forward) forex market trades in rupee outside India.
Gold Prices Expected To Rise on US Shutdown and Debt Ceiling Fears
Gold prices are set for a rebound next week as the ongoing US
government shutdown has boosted the precious metal's safe haven status,
according to a survey.
As many as 10 out of 21 analysts polled by the Kitco Gold Survey
said they expected gold prices to go up next week, as the markets
fretted about the shutdown, which has entered a fourth day, and the
looming debt ceiling deadline.
An extended US government shutdown could prop up gold buying, George
Gero, vice-president and precious metals strategist with RBC Capital
Markets Global Futures, told Kitco News.
"People would start to take a second look at gold as a (safe) haven," Gero said.
Spot gold ended 0.7% lower at $1,308 an ounce on 4 October. Prices had risen 1.2% a week ago
on renewed buying interest stirred by US budget fears and the
uncertainty surrounding the future pace of the Federal Reserve's
monetary stimulus programme.
US gold futures for delivery in December hovered at $1,309.90
an ounce, Reuters data showed. For the week as a whole, US gold futures
The world's largest economy will run out of cash to pay its
bills on 17 October if the government's borrowing limit is not raised.
The country's laws limit its borrowing to $16.7tn (£10.4tn, €12.3tn).
The Treasury would not be able to pay its bills if the debt ceiling is
Chinese Off Market
Gold prices have so far failed to log gains amid the US shutdown. Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, told Kitco News that the absence of Chinese buying was partly responsible.
Markets in China were closed the entire week for the National Day
Golden Week holidays, which meant that gold buyers in the world's
second-largest gold market were off counters.
For now, it's likely a "case of selling everything when things look
bad [as] even the safe-haven assets like gold are not shining in this
environment," Ross Norman, chief executive officer at Sharps Pixley told Marketwatch.
"Putting a rationale to that is difficult but that is a feature of the
'Frankenstein' economy - man-made and everything a bit weird.
"We may have another bout of brinkmanship on the debt ceiling which
as you may remember, drove gold to an all-time high mid 2011. While we
don't expect the same levels, it will certainly put some pressure on
those running short positions," Norman added.
The resumption of gold buying in China and continued buying in India,
the world's top gold importer, could also support gold prices.
India imported 7.24 tonnes of gold in September, more than double
August's purchase of 3.38 tonnes, according to government data.
World Bank Trims Growth Projections For Developing East Asia
The World Bank on Monday cut its growth forecasts for developing East
Asia, citing weaker growth in China and the other economies in the
region. The bank now projects 7.1 percent growth for developing East
Asia in 2013, below the 7.8 percent growth predicted in April. The
growth for 2014 is seen at 7.2 percent, which is also weaker than its
earlier forecast of 7.6 percent.