2013-09-16 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time| [USD - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index]
actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
Activity in the New York manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded
at a slower pace in the month of September, according to a report
released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.
The New York Fed said its general business conditions index edged down to 6.3 in September from 8.2 in August but remains in positive territory.
a positive reading indicates continued growth in the New York
manufacturing sector, economists had expected the index to climb to 9.0.
What Happens When A Range Ends?
Range traders enjoy taking advantage of sideways moving markets as price
toggles between key levels of support and resistance. However, what
happens when a range comes to an end? Today we will review how to take
advantage of range breakouts.
So now that we have learned how to identify a breakout, let’s discuss a trading plan to take advantage of the move.
Unlike the range trader, breakout traders are looking for key levels of
support or resistance to break. If a level of resistance breaks, traders
will buy in anticipation of a new uptrend beginning. Conversely,
breakout traders will look to sell a break below support. Normally this
technique can be used with a series of entry orders even elect to trade a
breakout manually through a market order. Regardless of the method of
entry, nullified, and fresh positions will look for a new trending
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index
Trading U.K. CPI - British Pound at Risk for Larger Correction
The U.K. Consumer Price report may trigger a more meaningful correction
in the GBPUSD as a slower rate of inflation raises the Bank of England’s
(BoE) scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance.
Why Is This Event Important:
In light of the fresh remarks coming out of the BoE Testimony, it seems
as though the central bank will toughen its stance to achieve the 2%
target for price growth, and the central bank may start to adopt a more
hawkish tone for monetary policy as it continues to operate under its
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Narrows to 2.7% or Lower
2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
RBA Minutes: Bank Doesn't Rule Out Further Easing
Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board
would not call it imminent, but they would not rule out the possibility
of further easing, minutes from the bank's September meeting revealed on
The board members felt that it was important to be able
to take further steps, should they become necessary, the minutes showed -
particularly since the Australian economy has continued to grow slightly below trend.
agreed that the bank should again neither close off the possibility of
reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them.
The board would continue to examine the data over the months ahead to
assess whether monetary policy was appropriately configured," the
At the meeting, the board decided to keep the
benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent on Tuesday,
with a possible depreciation of the currency expected to facilitate
rebalancing of the economy.
The RBA has reduced the cash rate by a
cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011 on the premise that
accommodative policy is needed to support demand in areas outside the
resources sector, as the peak in mining investment approaches.
easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported
interest-sensitive spending and asset values, and further effects can be
expected over time, the bank said.
2013-09-17 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time| [GBP - CPI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
U.K. Inflation Eases In August
U.K. annual inflation slowed for the second consecutive month in
August, driven by a slowdown in transportation cost, data published by
the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday.
edged down to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent in July. The rate came in
line with economists' expectations. However, consumer prices gained 0.4
percent from July.
Core inflation that excludes energy, food,
alcoholic beverages and tobacco, held steady at 2 percent in August,
confounding expectations for a moderate rise to 2.1 percent.
In a separate communique, the ONS said pipeline inflation slowed markedly in August, indicating easing inflationary pressure.
price inflation declined more-than-expected to 1.6 percent from 2.1
percent a month ago. The rate was seen at 1.8 percent. Month-on-month,
output prices edged up 0.1 percent compared with 0.2 percent increase in
3 things the Fed might do and what it means for forex: HSBC
Ah, September. Traders have been war-gaming the various scenarios
for months. And on Wednesday, Federal Reserve policy makers will
conclude their latest policy meeting and reveal whether they’re ready to
start scaling back the bond purchases that are at the center of the extraordinary policy measure known as QE3.
Currency strategists Daragh Maher and David Bloom of HSBC have a
handy note that looks at three possible outcomes for Wednesday’s big Fed
announcement and how to trade each of them. Here they are:
No tapering: If the Fed fails to pull the trigger, “do not be fooled,” they warn.
Tapering: HSBC forecasts the Fed is likely to announce
it will cut its monthly asset purchases by around $15 billion, slightly
more than the median forecast of $10 billion. But they key question, the
strategists say, is simply whether the Fed tapers or not.
Tapering plus new unemployment-rate threshold: This is
what could really upend markets. In this scenario, the Fed tapers its
monthly bond purchases but also says it won’t consider raising rates
until the unemployment rate falls even lower than its current threshold
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
3 Scenarios for Trading the FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to Release Updated Forecast
- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to Hold Press Conference at 18:30 GMT
A material shift in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy
may prop up the U.S. dollar as market participants see the central bank
scaling back its bond-purchasing program to $40B in September.
Time of release: 09/18/2013 18:00 GMT, 14:00 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, there are three possible outcomes (taper, no taper & no
taper with more detailed exit strategy), all of which will set the
near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar , but the more encompassing market
reaction may take shape following Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press
conference should the central bank head continue to call for an end of
quantitative easing in 2014.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Tapers QE and/or Lays More Detailed Exit Strategy
Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision
2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia July Leading Index Improves
The Conference Board's Leading Index for Australia rose 0.3 percent for July.
The Board also reported Wednesday that its Coincident Index declined 0.2 percent for July.
The Board also downwardly revised its small June decline to a larger one of 1.1 percent.
Board said five of the seven components comprising the Leading Index
increased in July. Building Approvals and gross operating surplus were
2013-09-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time| [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
nformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate
pace. Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further
improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains
elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and
the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have
risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart
from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been
running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term
inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to
foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects
that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick
up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline
toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.
The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and
the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the
tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if
sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor
market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2
percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it
anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the
Stocks Hit Record Highs As Fed Continues Buying $85B A Month
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke: "We are somewhat concerned ... I don't want to overstate it ... this was a precautionary step."