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NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Talking Points
2013-11-26 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Consumer Confidence]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Continues To Deteriorate In November
After reporting a sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence in the previous month, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing that confidence unexpectedly saw further downside in November.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped to 70.4 in November from an upwardly revised 72.4 in October.
The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to climb to 72.9 from the 71.2 originally reported for the previous month.
2013-11-26 21:45 GMT (or 22:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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New Zealand Has NZ$168 Million Trade Deficit In October
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$168 million in October, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - marking the smallest deficit for an October month in almost 20 years.
The headline figure beat forecasts for a deficit of NZ$350 million following the downwardly revised shortfall of NZ$216 million in September (originally a NZ$199 million deficit).
"The low trade deficit was due to exported goods recording the highest value for an October month," industry and labor statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said. "It was the highest value for exported goods for any month since March 2013."
2013-11-27 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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U.K. Q3 Growth Confirmed At 0.8%
The U.K. economy expanded 0.8 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, in line with the initial estimate published on October 25.
Gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010, and follows 0.7 percent growth in the second quarter of 2013, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday.
According to second estimates, GDP advanced 1.5 percent year-on-year, as initially estimated, in the third quarter.
Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on dailyfx article)
Demands for U.S. Durable Goods are expected to contract 2.0% in October and a marked slowdown in private sector consumption may drag on the dollar as it limits the Fed’s scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the December 17-18 meeting.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 11/27/2013 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: -2.0%
Previous: 3.7%
Forecast: -3.0% to 2.0%
Why Is This Event Important:
With the ongoing discussion at the Fed to scale back on quantitative easing, data pointing to a slower recovery may prompt the central bank to undermine the taper-timeline laid out by Chairman Ben Bernanke, and the committee may present a greater argument to carry its highly accommodative policy stance into 2014 should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
- Retains November Range; Carving Head-and-Shoulders Top?
- Relative Strength Index Retains Bullish Momentum
- Interim Resistance: 1.3530 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3580 (23.6% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.3290 (50.0% retracement) to 1.3300 Pivot
How To Trade This Event RiskBearish USD Trade: Orders for Durable Goods Contract 2.0% or Greater
- Need green, five-minute candle following the report to consider a long EURUSD trade
- If the market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, establish long EURUSD with two position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry with at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit
Bullish USD Trade: Demands Increase for the Third Straight MonthAlthough U.S. Durable Goods orders beat estimates of 2.3% coming in at 3.7%, Ex Transport and Cap Orders Nondef Ex Air missed estimates by over 2%. In the ‘bad news is good news’ psyche, EUR/USD saw some chop before heading higher as the trading week came to a close.
Technical Analysis Charts for Gold, Silver, Platimun and Palladium (based on kitco charts)
Trading the News: German Unemployment Change (based on dailyfx article)
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 11/28/2013 8:55 GMT, 3:55 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0K
Previous: 2K
Forecast: 0K to 2K
Why Is This Event Important:
With the European Central Bank’s (ECB) December 5 meeting quickly approaching, a further deterioration in the growth outlook may put increased pressure on the Governing Council to take more unprecedented steps, and the policy outlook may become a growing proponent to drive the Euro lower as President Mario Draghi looks to negative deposit rates.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish Euro Trade: German Unemployment Rises for Fourth Month
- Need red, five-minute candle following the report to consider a short Euro trade
- If the market reaction favors a bearish EURUSD trade, sell with two position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry with at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to cost on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit
Bullish Euro Trade: Labor Market Improves2013-11-28 00:00 GMT (or 01:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Business Confidence]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
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New Zealand Business Confidence Surges In November - ANZ
An index measuring business confidence in New Zealand spiked to a score of 60.5 in November, the latest survey from ANZ Bank revealed on Thursday - touching a near 15-year high.
The headline figure was up sharply from 53.2 in October.
A score above 50 means expansion or optimism in a sector, while a reading below signals contraction or pessimism.
Among the individual components of the survey, the activity outlook was unchanged at 47.1, while profits climbed to 37.3 from 28.9 in the previous month.
2013-11-28 08:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [Spain - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
Spanish Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed At 0.1%
The Spanish economy exited recession in the third quarter of 2013 with the gross domestic product expanding 0.1 percent sequentially, final data from the statistical office Ine revealed Thursday.
This follows a 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter and a 0.4 percent fall in the first quarter.
On an annual basis, the economy remained in negative territory. The GDP fell 1.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This was revised from a 1.2 percent contraction reported initially. In the second quarter, GDP was down 1.6 percent.
Technical Analysis for AUDUSD (based on Price & Time: AUD/USD Correction or Reversal? article)
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
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AUD/USD has rebounded sharply from just above the key support zone we highlighted on Tuesday. With the .9330 to .9360 area marking a convergence of several key Gann levels including the 7th square root relationship of the October high, the 2x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low and the 2nd square root relationship of the year intraday low it is a natural stopping point. Just how important this counter-trend move is will depend on the price action over the next few sessions. If Aussie can gain traction over .9170 on a daily close basis it likely sets up a stronger correction – perhaps back towards the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern. A potential hindrance to further upside is the short-term cyclical picture which is not particularly positive on the exchange rate as a minor turn window is seen today. A clear move under .9030 is required to signal that the broader downtrend is resuming.