Press review - page 553

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-09-05 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

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From sbs article :

• "The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent and repeated its concern that an appreciating Australian dollar could slow economic growth. RBA governor Philip Lowe said a higher exchange rate is weighing on the outlook for economic output and employment, and appreciation would likely result in a slower pick up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.""The Australian dollar dipped in the minutes following the RBA's rates announcement to 79.5 US cents, though recovered to be trading at 79.62 US cents at 1500 AEST."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-09-07 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 0.89B
• forecast data is 0.93B
• actual data is 0.46B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

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From official report :

• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $768m in July 2017, a decrease of $250m on the surplus in June 2017."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $460m in July 2017, a decrease of $428m on the surplus in June 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - weekly bullish reversal (based on the article)

Price on the weekly chart is breaking 53.62 resistance on close W1 bar to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition with 56.62/58.35 resistance levels as the nearest bullish targets in this case for example.

• "Since last Tuesday, when data from the CFTC is collected, the price of crude oil has rebounded 8%. There remains a lot of confusion as to the future direction of crude oil given that the historical “boom/bust” cycle is being questioned due to the large increase in global supply from the hands of shell producers. Despite the concerns that Hurricane Harvey would leave the gasoline market as many refineries were flooded and temporarily put offline, there was little to no concern that there be a shortage of oil. Recent inventory data showed there is no shortage of crude, just difficulty in the delivery of refined products."
• "Based on internal price action, I was keeping an eye on $48.15 per barrel, which was a terminating price of the triangle before the recent breakdown below $46 a barrel. As of last Thursday, we saw a sharp spike that led to the 8% rally with spoke about earlier as price cleared the internal resistance of $48.15 to trade as high as $49.39 on Wednesday. There is a confluence of resistance levels to watch between $49.67, which is the 200-day moving average, and the late July high of $50.20 per barrel. Between these two levels, there remains trendline resistance and Fibonacci levels that could resist a further price increase. One component that is helping the price of oil to remain supported is the weak US dollar."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - daily bullish; 0.7293/0.7344 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 200-SMA at 0.7130 resistance to above for the bullish market condition to be resumed. The price is testing the resistance levels at  0.7293/0.7344 for the bullish to be continuing.

• "The New Zealand Dollar looks to be tracing out a choppy down trend after completing a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a top in place against its US cousin. The move lower is confined within an emerging falling channel originating in mid-to-late August."
• "Near-term support is now at 0.7163, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that opening the door for another test of the August 31 low at 0.7132. Alternatively, a daily close above 0.7264 that takes out the channel top and the September 5 high exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7295 next."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-09-08 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

• past data is 10.9K
• forecast data is 17.8K
• actual data is 22.2K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

• "Employment was little changed in August (+22,000 or +0.1%). The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, matching the most recent low of October 2008, the month prior to the 2008-2009 labour-market downturn."
• "An increase in the number of people working part time (+110,000) was mostly offset by a decline in the number of people employed full time (-88,000). While the increase in part-time employment was spread across the age groups, most of the decrease in full-time employment occurred for youth aged 15 to 24. The overall employment decline for youth was accompanied by a notable decrease in their labour force participation."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Employment Change news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 10 - September 17 (based on the article)

"Looking ahead to the coming week, we do not have any major news from the Eurozone but we have the PPI and the CPI data from the US which should tell us about the inflation in the US and give us a hint of when the next rate hike from the Fed would be. With the pair closing the week above 1.20, we believe that the uptrend is still intact but the moves could be much slower than usual as the ECB is clearly uncomfortable with the euro being at these levels and the traders seem to be biding their time for a turnaround in the dollar strength. So, in the coming week, we could see the EURUSD make its way towards the 1.21 and then 1.22 region provided the US data is not too strong. Else, we could see the pair correct towards 1.18."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, September 10 - September 17 (based on the article)

"Looking ahead to the coming week, after the focus on the dollar and the euro over the last couple of weeks, it is the turn of the pound to be in focus in the coming week as we have the CPI data and the rate announcement and statement from the BOE. We also have the CPI and PPI data from the US in the coming week and a combination of all these should guarantee a lot of volatility in the GBPUSD pair. The price is now in a key region and  clean and clear break through 1.3260 should carry the pair towards 1.34 and 1.35 while a dovish BOE is likely to push the pair back towards 1.30."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly DAX Index Outlook: 2017, September 10 - September 17 (based on the article)

"The DAX broke higher during the week, after initially dipping down towards the €12,000 level. By breaking the top of the hammer from the previous week, this is a bullish sign and it looks as if were going to go looking for the €12,500 level above. That is an area that should be resistive, but in the overall look of the market, I believe we will be able to overcome that barrier. The DAX has been in an uptrend for some time, and should continue to be based upon the improving economic conditions in Europe, which of course is heavily influenced by Germany itself. I believe that buying dips continues to be the way forward, although we may get a bit of volatility in the short term, the longer-term uptrend is very much intact."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The forecast will be set to neutral on the U.S. Dollar for the week ahead. While the downtrend is attractive, the Dollar is incredibly oversold and with a key Fed meeting on the docket for the week after next, profit taking from bears ahead of FOMC could potentially offset additional bearish drivers that might show up. If Thursday’s inflation comes-in at 1.6% or less, expect more selling in the Greenback."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)

EUR/USD - "Fed Fund Futures highlight growing expectations Chair Janet Yellen and Co. will stay on hold throughout the remainder of the year as the central bank struggles to achieve the 2% target for price growth, with Governor Lael Brainard warning the central bank ‘should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target.’ In turn, the data prints coming out ahead of the September 20 interest rate decision may produce headwinds for the dollar as the core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to slowdown in August, while Retail Sales are anticipated to increase 0.1% following a 0.6% expansion in July. Subdued price growth accompanied by signs of easing consumptions may encourage the FOMC to preserve a wait-and-see approach especially as Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer departs the central bank in October, and Fed officials may ultimately project a more shallow path for the benchmark interest rate as Hurricane Harvey and Irma risk derailing the economic recovery."