Press review - page 504

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The Australian Dollar has yet to do the same, however. At any moment, the markets’ take on US monetary policy is likely to drive AUD/USD, much as it does for any other currency pair with ‘USD’ on either side. And there’s little on this week’s horizon that is likely to change that. Yes, we will get a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. But if there’s anyone who thinks Aussie interest rates will be rising, or indeed falling, from their current, record-low of 1.5% on Tuesday then they’re keeping it mighty quiet. There’s also plenty of key US economic data due this week, including the biggie – official labor-market stats – for which we must to wait until Friday. Assuming these numbers don’t diverge hugely in either direction from market expectations, the overall picture looks boringly neutral for the Australian Dollar, at least against its US cousin."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "This Thursday, a couple of hours following the announcement of the US-China summit, Trump tweeted that “the meeting next week with China will be a very difficult one”. “We can no longer have massive trade deficits and job losses”. Also, President Trump has been considering to launch a border adjustment tax, which from China’s point of view, it is “controversial”. At the summit, if Trump takes a hardline on China over its trade practices, it may dampen the outlook of China’s exports and imports condition over the following periods, adding bearish momentums to the Yuan. In addition to this top theme, China will release March Caixin PMI prints. The official Manufacturing PMI in March increased to 51.8 from 51.6 in the month prior and beat a forecast of 51.7. Compared to the official gauge, the Caixin PMI measures smaller-sized companies that are usually more sensitive to economic cycles. As a result, if these smaller manufacturing firms have not shown sustainable improvements, it indicates that the economy may still face some major challenges. Based on the data that has already been released, this is likely to be the case, and in turn, will not provide much support to Yuan rates."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "The positive economic data likely means the Fed remains on course to raise interest rates at least twice this year, and probably more, providing ongoing support for the Dollar. It also follows hawkish comments regarding the US interest rate policy from several Fed members earlier in the week. This is all bad news for gold prices, although support has been seen at the $1,240 level. However, political risks may change that narrative next week, as Donald Trump meets his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jin Ping at his Mar-a-Lago retreat in Florida. Trump says this highly anticipated meeting "will be a very difficult one." If it drives risk aversion in the markets, then gold could enjoy some more upside potential."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "The beginning of Q2 is setting up to be important for Oil traders to watch given what’s happening behind the price, which could determine if Crude Oil turns lower or much higher over Q2. One thing that is helpful to note is that counter to the equity market rallies across the world; Oil had a bad quarter. In looking at Energy stocks, the Oil & Gas sector was the worst performing sector for Q1 being down nearly 3%. In looking at the options markets; options traders are betting on theupside or a large reversion to the mean on the back of reports that OPEC is building consensus to extend the production cuts and encouraging US refinery demand data. The $64,000 question is whether or not Oil price and the Oil sector is leading or set to revert higher to stocks. The options market is betting on the latter as hope emerges that OPEC will extend the cut and give time for market demand to pull down the global stockpiles, which reached record levels in the US in Q1 due to US supplies."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017,April 02 - April 09 (based on the article)

Currencies traded in a mixed manner in the last week of Q1. A rate decision in Australia, the FOMC meeting minutes a full build-up to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. These are the top events on forex calendar.

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 57.2 in March.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30.
3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. ADP report is expected to show a 191,000 jobs gain in March.
4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 57.1 this time.
5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. Minutes from the Fed’s rate hike meeting in March will be released in April, providing an in-depth account on the reasons behind the 0.25 percentage point rate rise.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.Jobless claims is expected to reach 251,000 this week.
8. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Economists expect Canadian job creation of 5,700 and a rise to 6.7% in the unemployment rate.
9. US Non-Farm Employment Payrolls: Friday, 12:30.US jobs report for March is expected to show a job gain of 176,000 while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 24 pips range price movement 

2017-04-03 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

• "The trend estimate rose 0.1% in February 2017. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2017 and a rise of 0.2% in December 2016."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.1% in February. This follows a rise of 0.4% in January 2017 and a fall of 0.1% in December 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 24 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Google: Surprisingly Finish Up On The Week (based on the article)

Daily price was blunced from Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator to above for the bullish market condition to be resumed: the price is on breaking 833.00/851.95 resistance levels for the daily bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Wall Street earnings estimates for Google have been left mostly unchanged, ad controversy notwithstanding, at roughly $33 and change per share for 2017 and $39 and change per share for 2018 and rightly so given the minimal overall impact expected."
• "Estimates for Google are also conservative at present and if the company were to be able to show better than expected earnings and provide better guidance in a few weeks, when it will report earnings for Q1:17, look for estimates to rise and for the share price to catch (exceed?) its peer group and the Nasdaq."
• "Until then, the currently under-performing shares of Google could be presenting a big buying opportunity for those investors who have been waiting to step in and/or to add to their Google holdings."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 16 pips range price movement 

2017-04-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 1.50B
• forecast data is 1.75B
• actual data is 3.57B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,320m in February 2017, an increase of $545m (20%) on the surplus in January 2017."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,574m in February 2017, an increase of $2,071m on the surplus in January 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 43 pips range price movement 

2017-04-04 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From abc.net.au article:

• "Don't expect any movement in official interest rates for the foreseeable future, for the Reserve Bank has found itself trapped."
• "The statement that accompanied today's decision to keep rates on hold — the eighth month in succession — contained the usual bland language for which central bankers are renowned."

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AUD/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225: weekly correction, daily bearish reversal (based on the article)

Weekly price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing 18.795 support level to below on close weekly bar for the secondary correction to be started. By the way, the support level at 17,403 is the bearish reversal level, and if the price breaks this level to below so the reversal of the weekly price movementto the primary bearish market condition will be started.

Anyway, the daily price was already reversed to the bearish trend by good breakdown which was started in the beginning of the last month.

• "The Nikkei 225 seems to be in a spot of technical trouble, at least when looked at from a short-term perspective. This might not be obvious. After all, the index has been meandering for a couple of weeks, notching up almost as many rising days as fallers. Nevertheless, it has remained capped by a downward-sloping trend line in place since mid-March. That’s not good news for the bulls. Given current daily trading ranges a quick retake of that point looks like a big ask. This puts short-term focus on the downside, where clear support remans hard to sport until we get all the way back to 18823, which arrested the index’s early-February slide."
• "Longer-term however, the picture looks a little brighter. The Nikkei remains very well within an ascending channel which began back in July 2016. The base of that channel is miles away to the downside at around 17500."