Press review - page 438

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Current Account and 47 pips price movement

2016-09-30 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Current Account]

• past data is -32.6B
• forecast data is -30.5B
• actual data is -28.7B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

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"The UK’s current account deficit was £28.7 billion in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2016, up from a revised deficit of £27.0 billion in Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016. The deficit in Quarter 2 2016 equated to 5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, up from 5.7% in Quarter 1 2016."

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GBP/USD M5: 47 pips range price movement by U.K. Current Account news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 68 pips price movement

2016-09-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Real gross domestic product grew 0.5% in July, led by higher output in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. The rise in July followed a 0.6% increase in June, which had essentially offset an equivalent decline in May."

Real gross domestic product grows in July:

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USD/CAD M5: 68 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index Daily Technicals: ranging within 100-day SMA/200-day SMA for direction; 95.95 is the key resistance for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 200 SMA and above 100 SMA for the ranging bearish market condition.

"The clearest section of recent DXY price action is the 3 wave rally from the May low. That alone suggests that the path of least resistance is lower. Of course, weakness from the July high isn’t impulsive either (but could be motive), which leaves the wave picture unclear. Pay attention to the rising trendline just below price. Weakness below would be the best signal yet that a breakdown is underway. Downward slope is defined by the December-January trendline and also serves as the bearish invalidation level."

If the price breaks 95.95 resistance on close daily bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 95.05 support level on close daily bar so the primary bearrish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish rangging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Week Ahead On Wall Street: Jobs Report, Google Product Unveil (based on the Forbes article)

Monday

• "Ford, General Motors and other U.S. automakers report their September sales figures. While sales have softened this year, the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate is still expected to top 17.6 million, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Last year, Americans bought a record-breaking 17.5 million vehicles."

Tuesday

• "Google will show off its new products."
• "U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will speak at a conference in West Virginia."
• "Darden Restaurants and Micron, which has struggled mightily due to falling demand for its memory chips, are out with earnings."
• "Vice presidential nominees Mike Pence and Tim Kaine will take the debate stage for their turn in the limelight. Presidential nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton went head to head last week."

Wednesday

• "The U.S. Supreme Court, which begins its term this week, will hear arguments on an insider trading case. The decision could alter the way in which regulators define insider trading."
• "U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will give the keynote speech at the Conservative party conference and will likely touch on Brexit."
• "Monsanto, which was just bought by Bayer for $66 billion, reports earnings in the morning. It will be followed in the afternoon by Yum, the parent company of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell."
• "The Fed’s Charles Evans and Jeffrey Lacker will speak at separate events."

Thursday

• "Some of Wall Street’s biggest names, including Jaime Dimon, James Gorman, Michael Corbat and Mohamed El-Erian, will speak at a meeting held by the Institute of International Finance that continues through Saturday.
• "The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its policy meeting in September, at which President Mario Draghi said there was no change to their monetary policy.

Friday

• "It’s time to take another pulse of the labor market. U.S. employers are expected to have added 175,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate should be steady at 4.9%."
• "The IMF and World Bank convene their 2016 annual meeting in Washington, D.C. Among the scheduled speakers are former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. On Sunday, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde will have a one-on-one conversation with financial journalist Michael Lewis, author of “The Big Short” and “Boomerang,” which will be live streamed here at 10 am ET."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 02 - October 09 (based on the article)

The third quarter ended with mixed moves in currencies. A full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a rate decision in Australia and other figures fill the first week of the last quarter. These are the main events on forex calendar.

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Manufacturing PMI  is expected to reach 52.1 in September.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. No change in rates is expected this time. This is the first rate decision made by the new governor Philip Lowe.
3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP report is expected to show a 166,000 jobs gain in September.
4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Non-manufacturing activity is expected to reach 53.1 in September.
5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
   
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to register 255,000 jobs gain this week.
7. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Economists expected a smaller gain of 16,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 6.9%.
8. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. The number of new jobs in September is expected to be 171,000 while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 4.9%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.2% m/m.

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The decline from December 2015 to May 2016 consists of 5 waves. The decline is classified as a diagonal due to waves 2 and 4 overlapping. The rally from the May low is in 3 waves (most of wave C is Brexit), which reinforces the idea that the broader trend is now lower (3 wave movements are considered countertrend). Each rally since August has failed at or just below the 200 day average, which is now downward sloping. Trading focus is lower as long as the index is below the December-January trendline. Expect weakness to accelerate in the event of a drop below the parallel that extends off of the March 2015 high (this line was support in August). Strength above the July high at 97.56 would at least delay the bearish call."

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for EUR/USD (based on the article)

EUR/USD - "Put simply, if there is a seismic shift in the US political environment, the Fed will be forced to go back to the drawing board and dramatically alter its growth and inflation forecasts. Doing so will likely come at the expense of a rate hike this year - which means one less reason to like the greenback. There are thus two periods to watch for on the US Dollar side: the run-up to the election on November 8; then the fallout and lead-in to the December 14 FOMC meeting. Even though EUR/USD is coiling now, there are plenty of reasons to look for increased volatility."

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "The first set of crucial technical levels carved out through the previous quarter are 1.3500 resistance and 1.2800 support. These boundaries were set early and were not retested through the subsequent months – in other words the market was contracting. Dwindling consolidation was the primary feature of the Dollar-based majors and for the broader financial markets through the inordinately quiet third quarter. In turn, GBP/USD will likely succumb to changing winds that force major breakouts and trend development. A break below 1.2800 would likely be met with chop and struggle for progress. In contrast, an earnest break above 1.3500 will more readily find momentum towards 1.4750 and perhaps as high as the 1.5000 pre-Brexit spike."

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "Looking at the pair from a daily perspective, we can see that since the “death cross” of the 50-day simple moving average below the 200 average, the USD/JPY has been in a clear down trend, well below the 200 SMA, and every attempt above the 50 SMA was quickly rejected. In turn, this implies that at the moment there are no significant bullish signs at the shorter term outlook. For bulls to start making a case for higher prices, the pair may need to break, and hold above its 50 day SMA, which also coincides with a descending trend line at this point in time. This might expose resistance around 105.455 followed by 110.750. If bears manage to crack the 100 level, and hold price below, they might hit an air pocket (intervention risks aside) until the 95 level, with the 90 level in focus immediately after."

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for GOLD (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold continues to hold within the confines of an ascending channel formation off the yearly lows with prices looking to close the third quarter just above near-term support at 1303. This level is defined by the 100% extension of the decline off the high, the May high and basic channel support. A sliding parallel extending off the yearly high has continued to cap topside advances for now and heading into the fourth quarter the focus will be on a break of this near-term range between trendline resistance & 1303."