Press review - page 386

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Meeting Minutes and 33 pips price movement

2016-04-06 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from March 15-16 FOMC Meeting.

==========

EURUSD M5: 33 pips price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Trying to Extend Weekly Uptrend (based on the article)

• "The US Dollar is attempting to build upside momentum against the Chinese Yuan in offshore trade after pushing off support guiding price higher over the past week. Positioning is inconclusive however and gains may yet prove to be corrective in the context of a larger down move from the late-March swing high."
• "A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement opens the door for a test of the 50% level. Alternatively, a reversal below 6.4767, a level bolstered by trend line support, paves the way for a challenge of 6.4662."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Foreign Exchange Reserves and 52 pips price movement

2016-04-07 09:04 GMT | [CNH - Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM)]

• past data is 3.20T
• forecast data is 3.20T
• actual data is 3.21T according to the latest press release

A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.

[CNH - Foreign Exchange Reserves] = It presents the total amount of foreign currency held by a government.

==========

USDCNH M5: 52 pips price movement by China Foreign Exchange Reserves news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks and 11 pips price movement

2016-04-07 22:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = participation in a panel discussion at the International House, in New York.

==========

EURUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Consumer Confidence and 17 pips price movement

2016-04-08 06:00 GMT | [JPY - Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 40.1
• forecast data is 40.5
• actual data is 41.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households, excluding single-person homes.

==========

• "The Consumer Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted series) in March 2016 was 41.7, up 1.6 points from the previous month."
• "The categories of the Consumer Perception Indices (seasonally adjusted series), which are comprised of the Consumer Confidence Index in March are as follows;
      Overall livelihood: 40.5 (up 2.0 from the previous month)
      Income growth: 40.6 (up 0.8 from the previous month)
      Employment:43.9 (up 1.7 from the previous month)
      Willingness to buy durable goods:41.7 (up 1.7 from the previous month)"

==========

USDJPY M5: 17 pips price movement by Japan Consumer Confidence news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing Production and 46 pips price movement

2016-04-08 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is -0.2%
• actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

==========

• "Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.5% in February 2016 compared with the same month a year ago, the largest fall since August 2013. The largest contribution to the fall came from manufacturing, which decreased by 1.8%. This was the largest fall since July 2013, when it fell by an equal amount."
  
• "Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.3% between January 2016 and February 2016. There were decreases in 2 of the 4 main sectors, with manufacturing (the largest component of production) having the largest contribution to the decrease, falling by 1.1%."

==========

GBPUSD M5: 46 pips price movement by U.K. Manufacturing Production news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Employment Change and 62 pips price movement

2016-04-08 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

• past data is -2.3K
• forecast data is 10.4K
• actual data is 40.6K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

• "After three months of little change, employment increased by 41,000 (+0.2%) in March, lowering the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points to 7.1%."
• "With the gains in March, employment grew by 0.2% in the first quarter (+33,000). This was the fourth consecutive quarter with 0.2% employment growth."
• "In the 12 months to March, employment increased by 130,000 (+0.7%), the result of growth in full-time work. Over the same period, the number of hours worked increased by 1.2%."

==========

USDCAD M5: 62 pips price movement by Canada's Employment Change news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Wholesale Inventories and 21 pips price movement

2016-04-08 15:00 GMT | [USD - Wholesale Inventories]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is -0.2%
• actual data is -0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Wholesale Inventories] = Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.

==========

EURUSD M5: 21 pips price movement by U.S. Wholesale Inventories news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Naoyuki Shinohara, an ex-IMF deputy chief and formerly Japan's top currency diplomat (the articles' review)

• Tokyo unlikely to intervene in market to stem yen rises
• Conducting solo yen-selling intervention now would be ineffective, unlikely to gain G7 consent
• Hard to change with FX intervention current dollar/yen declining trend, which reflects fundamentals
• Hard to find any factors justifying yen-selling intervention
• It's clear yen isn't extremely strong on a real, effective basis

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Weekly Outlook April 11 - 15 (based on the article)

The Japanese yen was the king in the past week, frustrating Japanese officials. Inflation data in the UK and the US, Retail sales PPI, and Consumer sentiment in the US, rate decisions in the UK and Canada, Employment data in Australia stand out. These are the main events on forex calendar. 

1. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK inflation increased 0.3% in February unchanged from the previous month.
2. US Retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales fell less than expected in February, down 0.1% following a downwardly-revised minus 0.4% posted in the prior month.
3. US PPI: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices declined 0.2% in February amid lower energy and food costs.
4. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50% in line with market forecast.
5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Last week, US crude oil inventory plunged 4.9 million barrels to 529.9 million following a 2.3 million gain in the week before. Economists expected a 3.1 million barrels increase. The inventory fell due to growing demand from refineries and a drop in US imports. However, US crude oil inventories are 9.8% higher than in the same period in 2015.
6. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australian unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 5.8% in February, from 6.0% in the previous month.
7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. Bank of England maintained its monetary policy and benchmark rate, noting the policymakers will refrain from changing its strategy before the referendum on EU membership, expecting growth would keep the same momentum this quarter as it had at the end of last year.
8. US inflation data: Thursday, 12:30. US Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in February after a similar rise in January, raising yearly core CPI by 2.3% in the 12 months through February, the largest increase since May 2012. Economists expected a monthly rise of 0.2% and a yearly gain of 2.2%.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, indicating the labor market continues to strengthen despite lukewarm economic growth. The number of new claims fell 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000.
10. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. The UoM preliminary consumer sentiment index reached 90.0 in March, compared with a final February reading of 91.7. Economists expected the February index would rise to 92.1.