Oil back near $100: U.S. reserves at their lowest since 1982
The oil market has once again approached a key psychological level. #BRENT is trading around $99.70, recovering after recently falling into the $96–97 range. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop remains tense: U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 283.8 million barrels — the lowest level since October 1982, while the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose a risk of supply disruptions.
What is supporting oil prices right now:
- U.S. oil reserves are at their lowest level in more than 40 years. The ability to quickly offset major supply disruptions with additional releases from strategic reserves has become significantly more limited.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is still far from a final resolution, so the risk of disruptions to oil supplies continues to be reflected in prices.
- Alternative logistics are more expensive. Exporters have to rely on more complicated transportation and transshipment routes, increasing costs and supporting crude prices.
- Negotiations are simultaneously limiting the upside. Any signs of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran quickly bring sellers back into the market. As a result, price action remains volatile: several dollars of gains can be followed by an equally rapid correction.
It is precisely this uncertainty that is keeping #BRENT within a broad range. Over the past few sessions, the price has fallen to around $96, climbed back above $100, and then corrected again. This shows that the market has not yet settled on a clear direction, but buyers continue to return actively on dips.
According to FreshForex analysts, the key range for #BRENT right now is $97–101. If oil remains mostly within this range through the beginning of October and does not establish itself below $97, this would indicate that demand is holding up after each correction. In that case, a decisive move above $101 could push the price first toward the $103–105 area and, if tensions surrounding supplies persist, potentially open the way toward $106 and higher. For now, low U.S. reserve levels and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to leave room for a significant move higher, rather than simply fluctuations around the $100 level.
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