The past week in global markets was characterized by central banks holding steady, while macroeconomic data continued to show signs of softening growth momentum across several major economies. Below we summarize the key developments by region and their potential implications for traders.
China (CNY)
Industrial Production slowed to +5.2% y/y, down from 5.7% and below expectations. Retail Sales growth also underwhelmed at +3.4% y/y vs consensus 3.8%. These data reinforce concerns about fragile domestic demand and the limits of Beijing’s stimulus. For FX traders, the softness in retail activity underscores why CNY remains under depreciation pressure, particularly against USD and JPY.
United Kingdom (GBP)
Inflation was unchanged with headline CPI at 3.8% y/y, Core CPI slightly lower at 3.6%. The Bank of England left rates at 4.0% with a dovish vote split (0-1-8), highlighting division within the MPC. Retail Sales fell -0.4% m/m, suggesting the consumer backdrop remains weak despite stable inflation. GBP pairs reflected this mix, with limited upside momentum and renewed focus on growth risks.
Canada (CAD)
Inflation measures (median, trimmed, common) stayed in line with expectations, but Retail Sales fell sharply -0.6% m/m (Core -0.4%), reversing prior gains. For CAD, this weak retail print partially offset resilience in oil prices, leaving the currency range-bound.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 4.25%, alongside updated economic projections and a press conference. While markets widely expected a hold, the Fed’s cautious tone reinforced the “higher for longer” narrative. Meanwhile, jobless claims improved to 231K from 241K, and the Philly Fed index rebounded to 23.2. Still, housing indicators showed mixed signals. For USD, this combination kept DXY stable, though traders continue to price in potential volatility around future data.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate below 0.5% and issued a cautious statement, maintaining ultra-loose policy in contrast to its peers. With inflation moderating, the BoJ’s dovish bias weighed on JPY, though safe-haven flows limited downside.
New Zealand (NZD)
GDP contracted by -0.9% q/q, far below expectations of -0.3%. This signals renewed pressure on the NZ economy, especially in the face of high interest rates and soft external demand. NZD weakened accordingly, underlining its sensitivity to domestic growth shocks.
Australia (AUD)
The labor market surprised with a net job loss of -5.4K, against expectations of +21.2K. The unemployment rate, however, remained steady at 4.2%. The data suggest that while the job market is softening, overall conditions remain balanced. AUD reacted modestly, reflecting broader risk sentiment.
Commentary for Traders
This week’s macro picture was one of stability in inflation but fragility in growth. With the Fed, BoE and BoJ all holding rates, markets shifted focus to growth indicators — and the story was negative in the UK, Canada, and New Zealand. For trading desks, this sets up a theme of relative growth divergence, with USD and safe havens supported, while high-beta currencies like NZD and AUD remain vulnerable.
Looking ahead, the focus turns to PMI releases in Europe and the US, as well as updates from China’s property sector. Traders should remain alert to volatility around central bank communications, as the “higher for longer” stance continues to test market optimism.
Shared via Global Markets Pulse – providing traders with structured insights across FX, commodities, and global macro developments.
