Ukraine, for its part, said it expected Russia to pursue its aggression until it achieved surrender, which will never happen. Meanwhile, reports suggest Russia’s parliament is convening for an extraordinary session Friday where the imposition of martial law may be announced and the UK has sanctioned a number of high profile oligarchs. Energy prices have snapped higher again after yesterday’s plunge while stocks have eased (around 2% for the main European indices and by 0.7-0.8% for US equity futures). Bonds are broadly higher but US Treasurys are under-performing European bonds somewhat. Renewed market anxiety has lifted the USD modestly after yesterday’s decline; the AUD and NZD are out-performing in the G10 space while the EUR, SEK and NOK are weaker. Losses for central European FX (PLN, HUF) are more severe. Geo-political developments and their consequences collide with economic reality this morning; the ECB policy decision is not expected to see any changes in key policy settings but the press conference is likely to sound more cautious again relative to the hawkish turn in communications seen at last month’s press conference. Meanwhile, US CPI is expected to rise to 7.9% (with more than a few 8% calls in the Bloomberg survey). The risk backdrop alongside a somewhat dovish ECB plus high US inflation suggests the USD is poised to rise broadly today.
In my Signal provider I had a profit week of 2.83%, in the month I already accumulate 3.49% profit with a forecast of 85.42% yearly.
