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Wednesday, May 9th
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend and extends its downside trend, having again refreshed its multi-month lows on the level of 1.1826. Weakness of the pair is still explained by the continuing demand for the US dollar, as investors expect to see more hawkish monetary policy from the Fed this year. Moreover, the bullish dynamics of the US dollar was additionally underpinned by yesterday’s announcement of the US President D. Trump, who decided to withdraw the US from the Iran deal. There is no clear explanation, why the US dollar gained additional bullish momentum after Mr. Trump’s decision, but some market participants believe that the rise in oil prices, triggered by the US President’s announcement, could accelerate Fed monetary policy tightening pace. On the data front, today the US economy will offer investors only the PPI report, so broad market trend, determined by the US dollar dynamics, will continue to navigate the pair.
The GBP/USD pair continues to stay under bearish control lately, have been locked in the region of its 4-month lows, which was again refreshed below the level of 1.3500 a day before. Broad demand for the US dollar remains the key underlining theme across the market, forcing the pair to retreat into the negative territory. However, now markets’ attention remains glued to the BoE interest rate decision, which is expected to show no changes in the monetary policy. Earlier this year the BoE Governor M. Carney delivered hawkish rhetoric, indicating a potential rate hike. However, the series of disappointing UK economic data forced the market to change the forecasts on less hawkish. In any case, investors will continue to await for the outcome of the meeting, which most likely will spark some volatility across the market. As for the data, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for this Wednesday, so the US dollar price dynamics and increasing cautiousness ahead of the crucial event will determine pair’s further direction.
The NZD/USD pair yesterday again came under bearish pressure, as the US dollar regained its momentum, sending the pair to refresh its 5-month lows on the level of 0.6953. However, the pair managed to stall its retreat on the back of US President D. Trump’s decision to exit Iran’s nuclear deal. Mr. Trump’s decision on Iran deal led to another spike in oil prices, which in turn offered support to commodity-linked assets, such as the Kiwi. Another reason of pair’s subdued dynamics is upcoming RBNZ meeting, which will take place during the next Asian session. Big surprises from the Bank are not expected, but any comments on further regulator’s projections could affect current divergence between the Fed and RBNZ. Today the US PPI will be the only relevant data report, so broad market trend and greenback price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair.
The USD/JPY pair bounced off the level of 109.00 in Asia and refreshed its weekly highs at 109.64 on the back of ongoing demand for the US dollar. The Japanese yen remains the weakest asset of this session, as US bulls continue to dominate the market in the middle of the week. Yesterday the Fed Chairman J. Powell delivered his speech, where he didn’t provide investors with any surprises, but noting that the regulator will continue rate rising policy. Moreover, the divergence between the Fed and BoJ remains one of the key driving factors, which is pushing the pair in the northern direction. The economic calendar is light this Wednesday, so the pair will continue to follow widespread market trend during today’s trades.
Major events of the day:
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1778 R. 1.1980
USDJPY S. 108.57 R. 109.63
GBPUSD S. 1.3432 R. 1.3650
USDCHF S. 0.9978 R. 1.0064
AUDUSD S. 0.7377 R. 0.7565
NZDUSD S. 0.6907 R. 0.7061
USDCAD S. 1.2819 R. 1.3063
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