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Thursday, May 3rd
The EUR/USD pair has finally found some buying interest, having bounced off its 5-month lows, located at 1.1938. Today offered tone of the US dollar remains the key theme across the market, allowing the pair to recover some part of its losses. Recent downside correction of the greenback is mainly attributed to yesterday’s FOMC meeting, where the regulator failed to surprise investors. The Bank left its interest rate unchanged on the level of 1.5%, matching broad market expectations. Moreover, the Fed stressed that sees inflation close to its target level of 2% and expects the extension of gradual growth of the economy. However, the regulator did not offer any comments regarding the acceleration of interest rate growth, leaving in the prospect only two rate hikes this year. On the data front, today all eyes will remain glued to the preliminary EZ inflation data, while the next risky event for the pair is scheduled for this Friday, as the US will release NFP, which will bring spike of volatility across the market.
The GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend today and recovers its recent losses, having bounced off its nearly 5-month lows, marked at 1.3555 on Wednesday. The correction of the pair could be mainly explained by yesterday’s not enough hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting, where the regulator reiterated all we heard before, without any additional information about monetary policy tightening this year. Now all market’s attention has shifted to the BoE interest rate decision, where the regulator is expected to increase its rate. However, the odds of a BoE rate hike have fallen quite sharply, as the latest results of British economy leave much to be desired. As for economic releases for today, the UK has prepared the services PMI report, while the US data calendar will offer US ISM Non-manufacturing report, which will form near-term trajectory this Thursday.
The AUD/USD pair extends its post-Fed meeting upside correction, having climbed above the level of 0.7500. Yesterday the pair was trading back and forth all due to US dollar price actions. However, the pair finally found support after the results of the FOMC meeting turned out to be less informative than the market expected. Yesterday, the regulator stressed that economic growth pace remains moderate and risks are balanced, while not offering any additional information about further policy tightening measures. This outcome negatively affected positions of the US dollar, allowing the major assets to recover some ground, including the Aussie. Moreover, block of upbeat Australia’s data, featuring trade balance and housing market data, also contributed to pair’s recent correction. Today the economic calendar will remain silent, so investors will continue to digest recent economic events.
The USD/JPY pair extends correction from its 3-month highs, marked on the level of 110.03 a day before. It seems that the pair lost its bullish momentum after yesterday’s not enough hawkish Fed meeting. On Wednesday, the regulator didn’t make any changes to its policy projections, thereby leaving in the prospect only two additional rate hikes this year. The lack of any surprises from the Fed’s side has lowered the divergence between the Fed and BoJ, thereby additionally supporting the Japanese currency. Looking ahead, today's session promises to be quiet, as Japanese markets will remain closed in observance of Constitution Day, while the US economic calendar will offer only ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend this Thursday.
Major events of the day:
Japan - Constitution Day
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1879 R. 1.2067
USDJPY S. 109.38 R. 110.26
GBPUSD S. 1.3486 R. 1.3708
USDCHF S. 0.9911 R. 1.0041
AUDUSD S. 0.7439 R. 0.7563
NZDUSD S. 0.6956 R. 0.7050
USDCAD S. 1.2772 R. 1.2942
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