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Wednesday, January 31st
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend, having regained its positive traction after its recent retracement. Today, the key navigator across the market remains renewed softness of the US dollar, which failed to benefit from US President D.Trump’s “State of the Union” speech, where the head of state highlighted the need for reciprocal trade agreements and reiterated his commitment to renegotiate “bad deals”. Moreover, it seems that the market payed a little of attention to yesterday’s US CB consumer confidence data, which also failed to provide the US dollar with enough momentum to recover its bullish trend. Today, investors will not stay bored, as we have plenty of important events, which will help the pair to form its further trajectory. Speaking of today’s events, later the EU will publish preliminary CPI report, the US will release ADP jobs data, which is often considered as pre-NFP data, and the key event of this Wednesday will be much-awaited FOMC meeting, which hopefully will provide fresh information regarding further Fed monetary policy path.
The GBP/USD pair remains positive for the second consecutive session, having recovered to the region of 1.4200, on the back of several bullish factors. It seems that the market has passed over recent Brexit uncertainty, related to market speculations regarding potential quit of the current PM of Britain, which were weighing the pound across the market. Moreover, yesterday’s positive economic outlook by BoE Governor M.Carney, who expects a significant inflow of investments into the UK economy after resolving uncertainties regarding Brexit, provided the UK currency with significant bullish impetus, thus allowing the pair to regain its positive traction. And finally, renewed weakness of the US dollar, which failed to benefit from the US President Donald Trump’s “State of the Union Address”, also positively affects positions of the pair this Wednesday. Today we are expecting another spike of volatility during the NA session, following bloc of important data from the US economy and much-awaited FOMC meeting, which will be able to form further trajectory of USD.
The USD/JPY pair was struggling to find direction during the Asian trading session, remaining under pressure from both sides. First, “The State of the Union Address” delivered by US President D.Tramp earlier today failed to cheer up US bulls, thereby allowing the greenback again to regain its bearish trend. On the other hand, the yen also received notable bearish impetus, following comments of the BoJ Governor H.Kuroda, who stated that the regulator would continue to perform policy easing measures by expanding the QE program, as inflation is still far away from its target level of 2%. However, seems that the pair has finally came out of its narrow corridor to the downside on the European opening, as renewed softness around the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market. Today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to the FOMC meeting, which will take place in NY’s afternoon, but until then the bloc of important US data and greenback price dynamics will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.
The AUD/USD pair witnessed volatile trades during Asian session, moving back and forth. Earlier today, the pair came under strong bearish pressure following disappointing Australia’s inflation data and weak Chinese manufacturing PMI report. However, the pair managed to reverse the most part of its losses and regain positions near the level of 0.8100, as the US dollar again came under bearish control, following unimpressive President Donald Trump’s first “State of the Union Address”. Moreover, the pair also benefited from renewed growth of gold and copper prices, which positively affected commodity-linked Aussie. Looking ahead, today we will continue to witness heavy data session, as the US will publish important data from housing and labor markets, while the culmination of the day will be much-awaited Fed interest decision, which is scheduled on the second half of the NA session.
Major events of the day:
German Unemployment Rate – 10.55 (GMT +2)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +2)
Canada GDP – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2277 R. 1.2515
USDJPY S. 108.00 R. 109.58
GBPUSD S. 1.3911 R. 1.4285
USDCHF S. 0.9264 R. 0.9430
AUDUSD S. 0.8009 R. 0.8151
NZDUSD S. 0.7245 R. 0.7397
USDCAD S. 1.2270 R. 1.2412
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