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Tuesday, October 17th
The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control for the fourth consecutive session, as uncertainty on the political field of Spain drags the euro lower against its main competitors. Yesterday Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont failed to provide more clarity on the current situation, so the Spanish government gave him more time to decide on whether he wants to declare the independency of Catalonia or not. Moreover, continuing optimism around the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market so far this week, which also negatively affects the pair. On the data front, now investors are looking forward to the release of the German ZE surveys and Eurozone final CPI report, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while the US calendar will offer only secondary data reports during the NA session, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.
The GBP/USD pair shows subdued trading dynamics on Tuesday, wobbling near the level of 1.3250, as investors remain in anticipation of crucial data from the UK economy. However, the pair continues to stay under pressure so far this week, as renewed jitters around Brexit are weighing the UK currency. Seems that the UK and EU are still struggling to make any progress in the Brexit negotiations, thus easing market expectation of positive Brexit deal. Adding to this, upbeat sentiments around the US dollar and easing demand for higher-yielding currencies are also exerting negative pressure on the pair lately. It is expected that today we will have pretty volatile session, as the UK economic calendar will bring crucial inflation data and BoE Governor M.Carney will deliver a speech, where his comments regarding further monetary policy tightening measures will be highly influential for the pound.
The AUD/USD pair managed to bounce off its intraday lows, marked at 0.7835 level, however, remaining under pressure on the back of several bearish factors. Earlier this session the pair received moderate bearish impetus after RBA published protocols from its last meeting. The Bank once again reiterated its position that any monetary policy tightening measures would depend only on domestic economic conditions, and not on broad interest rate increase. Also the RBA members also showed worries about still high Aussie, which negatively affects inflation and global economic growth pace. Moreover, ongoing recovery of the US dollar and reduced risk appetite also contributed to pair’s decline. Looking ahead, the US economic calendar will continue to keep silence today, so the broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.
The dollar/yen pair alternates gains with losses on Tuesday, having been stuck between bulls and bears. Earlier today, the yen received bearish impetus after North Korea’s deputy UN envoy Kim In-ryong stated, that his country would not give up nuclear weapons, since this is a justified measure of self-defense. Also he noted that no country in the world has been exposed to such an extreme and direct nuclear threat from the US for so long, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula has reached "the touch-and-go point and a nuclear war may breakout at any moment". As a result, a massive wave of risk-off sentiments approached the market, boosting the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar continues to recover its positions across the market after disappointing Friday’s inflation figures that is capping pair’s retreat. Today the US calendar won’t bring anything noteworthy, so markets will pay close attention to any headlines from North Korea for further momentum.
The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 13.15 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1759 R. 1.1839
USDJPY S. 111.41 R. 112.67
GBPUSD S. 1.3174 R. 1.3348
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9791
AUDUSD S. 0.7815 R. 0.7907
NZDUSD S. 0.7137 R. 0.7213
USDCAD S. 1.2416 R. 1.2608
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