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Friday, October 13th
The EUR/USD pair lost its upside momentum this morning, having met resistance in the vicinity of 1.1850 level, on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher against its main competitor after drawdown, backed by less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. On the other hand, the pair was trading on a positive note during Asia, as the euro received a fresh boost, following recent headlines, saying that the ECB is considering the tapering of the QE program, starting from January 2018. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as we are heading closer to the key event of this Friday – the release of the US CPI report, which could reinforce market’s expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path. Besides the US inflation, investors will also pay attention to US retail sales numbers, which will also be able to bring some additional impetus to the pair.
The GBP/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics so far this week, having refreshed its nearly 2-week highs at 1.3324 spot this morning, as continuing optimism around Brexit supports the pound. Seems that UK bulls are not going to give up, extending its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session, on the back of recent news headlines, citing EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, who offered the UK to stay in the EU's single market during the 2-year transition period. Moreover, subdued price dynamics of the US dollar and recent talks about narrowing divergence between Fed and BoE also collaborate with pair’s upside trend at the end of this week. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards crucial US CPI and retail sales figures, which could help the pair to determine its further direction.
The AUD/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the fourth day in a row, despite cautious RBA Financial Stability Review report and mixed Chinese trade data. The RBA once again reiterated its position, saying that higher interest rate level could weigh on the economy, and especially on the Australian housing market. Moreover, seems that the pair also remained resilient to mixed Chinese trade balance numbers, which failed to exert enough pressure on Australian bulls. Pair’s upside trend could be mainly explained only by a softer tone of the greenback, as markets continue to digest recent FOMC meeting minutes. However, further growth of the pair may appear capped, as we are heading to the key event of this week – US CPI report, which will be especially interesting in light of recent cautious comments of Fed members regarding low inflation growth rates in the US.
The BTC/USD pair continues to surprise the market with its performances. Recall, in September the BTC/USD pair dipped below the level of 3000, following restrictions on digital currency in China, which is the world's largest crypto market. However, Bitcoin managed to recover a smile and refreshed its ultimate highs at 5867.60 earlier this session. There is no clear catalyst behind this aggressive upsurge, while markets believe that slew of secondary positive factors, such as Amazon bringing bitcoin on their platform, rumors that bitcoin trading would likely be resumed with more regulation in China or increasing trading volumes in S.Korea and Japan, are providing enough support to Bitcoin, so the pair could resume its upside trend. Currently the BTC/USD pair is trading at 5562.70 spot, while its market capitalization rose above 90 billion USD, referring to the data from coinmarketcap.com.
The main events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1792 R. 1.1898
USDJPY S. 111.92 R. 112.70
GBPUSD S. 1.3056 R. 1.3394
USDCHF S. 0.9690 R. 0.9794
AUDUSD S. 0.7762 R. 0.7864
NZDUSD S. 0.7047 R. 0.7187
USDCAD S. 1.2407 R. 1.2523
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