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Tuesday, October 10th
The EUR/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the third consecutive session on the back of weaker positions of the US dollar, despite uncertain political climate in Spain. However, further upside looks unlikely, as now all market’s attention remains focused on Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont's speech, who, as expected, can declare the independence of the region unilaterally. This outcome of the current situation may trigger spike of volatility across the market and, as a result, massive moves of the pair. However, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, backed by awful results from the US labor market, continues to navigate the market, offering some support to the main currency pair lately. Today both economic calendars lack any major market moving releases, so developments on Spain’s political field will remain as an exclusive driving factor for the pair on Tuesday.
The GBP/USD pair extends its bid tone for the second day in a row on the back of ongoing retreat of the US dollar. Sell-off of the greenback remains the key driving theme across the market so far this week, as Friday’s weaker-than-expected NFP numbers keep pressuring on the US currency. Adding to this, positive comments of the UK PM T.May on post-Brexit relationships with the EU during her speech before the Parliament also helped the pair to maintain its positive mood. Mrs. May showed intention to keep strong economic partnership with EU after leaving the Eurozone. Now all focus shifts towards the UK Manufacturing Production report, which is the only important data release for today, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain as a key driving factor for the pair during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair broke its 3-day losing streak and staged minor recovery, having refreshed its intraday highs in the region of 0.7790. The pair gained positive traction this morning after the NAB Business Confidence index came above market expectations, which provided some support to the Aussie. Moreover, bulls failed to regain control over the greenback yesterday after several unsuccessful attempts, as disappointing data from the US labor market continues to exert pressure on the US dollar. However, odds that the Fed will once again raise its interest rate this year remain fairly high that may allow the US dollar to regain its positive tone across the market, thereby limiting the pair’s further gains. On the data front, today the US economic data calendar will continue to keep silence, offering only secondary data reports, so widespread market mood will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.
The USD/JPY pair navigates without clear direction this morning, oscillating within a 25 pips narrow trading range around the 112.50 level, as bulls and bears are fighting for control over the pair. Seems that yen bulls payed little of attention to the positive data from the Japanese economy, as dovish comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have limited yen’s gains. The head of the regulator once again reiterated that the BoJ would continue to maintain QE program until the economy reaches the inflation target of 2%. Adding to this, decreasing demand for safety on the back of lack of any news headlines form the Korean peninsula also did little to set up pair’s further trajectory. On the other hand, ongoing retreat of the US dollar, backed by weak results from the US labor market, continues to keep the pair under pressure so far this week. Today in absence of any relevant data reports, the pair will continue to trace broad market trend to determine its further direction.
The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1701 R. 1.1775
USDJPY S. 112.16 R. 113.00
GBPUSD S. 1.3025 R. 1.3243
USDCHF S. 0.9754 R. 0.9828
AUDUSD S. 0.7725 R. 0.7795
NZDUSD S. 0.7026 R. 0.7104
USDCAD S. 1.2511 R. 1.2577
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