Today has been released the Swiss domestic sight deposits which has declined to CHF 470.3billion from CHF 476.3 billion while the EURCHF is pushing higher and is now consolidating around 1.1350CHF for one single euro note. We start seeing the sight deposits growth slowing down. The FX reserves has largely increased in July as the CHF was weakening. We consider that for the time being the SNB does not need to intervene as much as it intervened in the past.
The CHF appreciation is providing the Swiss central bank with some relief. Yet, we consider that the CHF is still significantly overvalued. The main driver is still the single currency and in September, the ECB meeting will be key. There are room for disappointment as markets expect the European central bank to start further tightening by reducing the asset purchase program. On the contrary we believe that the European institution will show further cautiousness and that downside pressures on the EURCHF pair are likely.
On top of that the Greek issue is not sustainable. Fitch upgraded this weekend the debt rating to B- from CCC with a positive outlook. This contributes to drive in the short-run the euro higher as markets will price in the possibility of further upgrade. We recall that the charge of the Greek debt is not sustainable in the long run and will send money flowing back in Switzerland. Any appreciation of the EURCHF should pave the way for reloading short euro positions.
By Yann Quelenn