EUR/USD: on the eve of important events

EUR/USD: on the eve of important events

5 July 2017, 13:22

This week, investors will closely monitor the publication of a number of important macroeconomic data. In addition to waiting for news on the course of the two-day G-20 summit that will begin in Hamburg on Friday, market participants will also focus on the minutes of the meeting of the central banks of the United States and the Eurozone to determine the prospects for monetary policy. The minutes of the meetings will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT) (US Federal Reserve) and Thursday (11:30 GMT) (ECB).

Today, there are new evidence of strengthening the economy of the Eurozone. So, in May, retail sales grew by 0.4% in the Eurozone (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 0.1% in April). The composite index of supply managers (PMI) in the services sector of the Eurozone increased to 55.4 in June (against the forecast of 54.7), the same index for the manufacturing sector increased to 56.3 in June (the forecast was 55.7). Values ​​above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

Similar indices rose in June also in countries with leading economies of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy). This was reported today by the Statistics Agency of the Eurozone in conjunction with Markit Economics.

Nevertheless, the acceleration of economic growth has not yet led to a steady acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, the target level of which is just below 2.0%. The growth of wages also remains weak.

As ECB representative Peter Prat said yesterday during his speech in Rome, "our (ECB) task has not been fulfilled yet. We need to maintain patience and perseverance. We need to be patient, because it takes more time for inflation to be surely reflected in the data. "

The euro almost did not react to the publication of positive data. The euro is falling against the dollar, as are other major currencies. And the strengthening of the dollar is observed for the third consecutive session, and in the pair EUR / USD - the fourth trading session.

The dollar continues to recover in the foreign exchange market on the eve of today's publication of the protocol since the last meeting of the Fed and on Friday - data from the US labor market for June.

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Support and resistance levels

The fourth day of the EUR / USD pair is declining. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.

The pair EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level 1.1330 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The target of further decline will be support levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.8% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1250 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart).

The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is generally maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 1.1210 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

In case of breakdown of support level 1.1210, the pair EUR / USD decline will accelerate with the target at support level 1.1120 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart and June lows). The breakdown of the key support level 1.0950 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will cancel the upward trend of the EUR / USD pair.

Support levels: 1.1285, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1120, 1.0950

Levels of resistance: 1.1330, 1.1350, 1.1440, 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1785


Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1360. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1280, 1.1215, 1.1170, 1.1140

Buy Stop 1.1360. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1785

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