Central Banks are the most important players in the market.
When they want they intervene in the market.
Sometime they get the desired results oftentimes they themselves get surprised the market.
The recent case of Royal Bank Of New Zealand that announced a rate cut sometime back.
The market did not like the rate cut announcement and did the exact opposite of what the bank had wanted.
Federal Reserve is one of them. Bank of Japan also gets its economic forecasts right.
Bank of Canada is the best amongst them with the most accurate economic projections.
But not one of these banks have the capacity to predict a black swan event.
You cannot predict a black swan event no matter what methodology you use.
Take the case of Bear Stearns. Federal Reserve refused to give a bailout package.
Fall of Bear Stearns was the catalyst that started the stock market crash of 2008.