Heavy Truck Sales Indicate Recession In U.S. Economy

17 December 2016, 20:10
Muhammad Elbermawi

3rd Quarter 2016 U.S. Economic Growth

The 3rd Quarter 2016 real GDP growth rate came in at +1.57% year-over-year.  FFC's estimate of the 3rd quarter's U.S. economic growth is +0.0% year-over-year.  Yes, U.S. economic growth is essentially flat.

U.S. Recession Indicator

A fairly decent indicator of U.S. recessions is the sales of heavy trucks.  The graph below shows U.S. heavy truck sales by units (not dollars) from January 1967 to August 2016.  The grey vertical bars are periods of recessions.

The problem is the trend at the far right, which is where we are now.  This indicator shows the U.S. is either currently in a recession (FFC's view) or is heading into one.


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