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Wednesday, November 30th
Wednesday is here and all attention as it was expected is focused on the one of the most important events of this week – OPEC meeting, that will begin today at 11.00 (+2 GMT) in Vienna. The main topic of this meeting remains oil production volume cut. So the market has already started to price in crucial agreement between OPEC members, as even Iranian oil minister has noted that Iran promises to be flexible to reach a deal. The OPEC members are trying to reach a deal for the last 11-months every time promising to agree on oil production issue. So today the market will unlikely accept anything less than oil output cut deal. The result of the OPEC meeting will expectedly provide significant impact on oil prices and eventually on the resource-linked currencies, such as Canadian, Australian and NZ dollars. The press conference, where the final decision will be announced will begin at 17.00 (+2 GMT). However, until then all eyes will remain on developments surrounding the crucial meeting.
The EUR/USD pair keeps its course in north direction as better than expected data provided by the US economy are still supporting the dollar. Yesterday the US economy showed better results of GDP and consumer confidence boosting dollar’s bulls and fueling talks about upcoming Fed’s interest rate decision. Meanwhile, ECB president M.Draghi during his interview has shown concerns about existing risks of the Eurozone’s economy, while noting that ECB has all instruments to reach the target level of the inflation just under 2%. Another volatile session for the pair is scheduled for this Wednesday with German Unemployment Change, EU CPI, another speech of M.Draghi and data from US labor and housing markets.
The Aussie had rebounded from its overnight highs marked just below 0.75 and dropped to mid-0.74 in cross with the US dollar on the back of surprisingly poor housing data released during Asia. However, AUD/USD pair’s drop remains capped as investors has entered in cautious mode ahead of the OPEC meeting. Today OPEC meeting will take center stage, while data from US economy will also have some impact across the market.
The ongoing recovery in of the US dollar is extending GBP/USD pair’s bearish trend. Yesterday, the market participants were pleasantly surprised by the bloc of positive data from US side, forcing the pair to retreat from its daily highs. Moreover, the BoE Financial Stability Report has shown that outlook for UK financial stability remains challenging additionally weighing the pound. Today the pair will continue to follow risk sentiments as OPEC meeting will be able to drive risk-associated assets throughout the session, while US data also will be watched for any impact for the pair.
The main events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 10.55 (GMT +2)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Speech of the ECB President M.Draghi – 14.30 (GMT +2)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +2)
Canadian GDP – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0532 R. 1.0712
USDJPY S. 110.72 R. 114.16
GBPUSD S. 1.2329 R. 1.2605
USDCHF S. 1.0068 R. 1.0200
AUDUSD S. 0.7405 R. 0.7535
NZDUSD S. 0.7041 R. 0.7175
USDCAD S. 1.3355 R. 1.3517
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