Overview of the new week 14.11 - 20.11.2016

Overview of the new week 14.11 - 20.11.2016

14 November 2016, 11:33
Yuri Papshev

This week is expected to further strengthen the dollar. Scheduled for the week of speech of the Fed Janet Yellen may contain signals at increasing rates in the US in December

 Last week was a sharp strengthening of the dollar and a record increase in the US stock market against the background of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections in the United States.

Investors began to withdraw funds from defensive assets such as the yen and precious metals, government bonds. The top gainers last week were shares of industrial companies and banks. For the week DJIA gained 5.4%, which was for him the highest result since December 2011. The S & P500 and the Nasdaq Composite added this week by 3.8%. The sub-index of industrial companies as part of S & P500 has risen over the past week by 8%, while the financial sector sub-index - 11%. Gold Prices in the US on Friday fell to a 5-week low, completing trades on COMEX was down 3.3%, at the level of 1224.30 US dollars per troy ounce, the lowest closing level since June 3. According to the quotations of futures on a bet the Fed, investors assess the probability of a December tightening of monetary policy in the 81.1%.

 As always, it is expected publication of important macroeconomic data and published several important news on the upcoming trading week.


13:00 (GMT + 3) - Industrial production (level) in the euro area in September

18:00 - ECB President Mario Draghi. The surge in volatility in the financial markets is usually observed during his speeches immediately after the ECB meeting on monetary policy. Other performances tend to cause less volatility. However, in any case, you must show extra care when trading in the foreign exchange market, especially in the euro and European indices during performances M.Dragi,

which is famous for the fact that their comments can deploy financial markets


00:45 - Retail sales in New Zealand in Q3

3:30 - Minutes from the last meeting of the RB Australia, which is published two weeks after the interest rate decision. If the RBA takes "hawkish" attitude in relation to the inflation outlook in the economy, the markets regard this as a higher probability of a rate hike, which is positive for the AUD, and vice versa

10:00 - Germany's GDP in the 3rd quarter. GDP is considered an indicator of the general state of the German economy, which is the locomotive of the entire euro area economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered to be positive for the EUR, and vice versa. Expected annual growth of 1.8% and 0.3% quarterly. If the data on GDP will be weaker, it will have a downward pressure on the euro

11:30 - French Q3 GDP

12:00 - Italian GDP in the 3rd quarter

12:30 - the consumer price index in the UK in October. CPI is a key indicator of inflation, and the most important indicator for the Bank of England to determine the future of monetary policy in the UK and the pound sterling. growth is expected at 1.1%, which had a positive impact on the pound, and vice versa

13:00 - the index of sentiment in the business environment in Germany ZEW November

13:00 - Eurozone trade balance for September, euro area GDP in the 3rd quarter (expected GDP growth of 1.6% yoy and 0.3% qoq). Macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and Germany, arriving late, talking about the threat of deflation in the euro area. If the published data could be worse than the forecast, it will bring down the euro on the currency market

16:30 - block of inflation on the US indicators in October - the level of retail sales, the index of export / import prices. Retail sales - the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in sales in the retail trade. High result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa. Forecast + 0.6%.

In the period after 17:00 published index prices for dairy products, which usually causes a spike in volatility in the New Zealand dollar trade. The last two weeks before the auction of dairy products have on the growth of world prices for dairy products.

The price index for dairy products, prepared by the Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value (+ 11.4%). The main export article of the country is just milk. Lower prices will put pressure on the New Zealand currency, and vice versa


00:30 - the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on the change in US oil inventories last week

13:00 - the index of economic expectations ZEW in Switzerland in November

17:15 - Industrial production in the US, capacity utilization for October

18:30 - change in inventories in the US oil and oil products in the last week from the US Department of Energy

23:00 - Report RBNZ Financial Stability in New Zealand. Publication of the report may intensify the volatility in trade New Zealand dollar


12:30 - report on retail sales in the UK in October, produced by the Office for National Statistics, UK. The data presented in the report demonstrate the dynamics in the retail trade sector of the UK. The high value of the index is positive for the GBP, and vice versa

13:00 - the consumer price index in the euro area in October. Consumer Price Index - a key measure of inflation. From it depends tendency ECB to tighten or soften its monetary policy. According to the forecast figure is expected to rise by 0.3% (+ 0.5% yoy). Any deviation in either direction will cause the outbreak of volatility both in euro and on European stock indices

15:30 - Information on the meeting of the ECB's monetary policy, containing an overview of developments in the financial, economic and monetary policy

16:30 - Construction of homes in the US in October, weekly data from the US Department of Labor on the number of initial unemployment claims. The result is higher than expected indicates a weakness of the labor market that negatively affects the US dollar, and vice versa. Previous value 254 000 (259 000 forecast)

16:30 - block of key macroeconomic indicators for the US: Consumer Price Indices for October, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Philadelphia Fed November

18:00 - the speech of the Fed's Janet Yellen. If Yellen affect the subject of monetary policy in the United States, the volatility in the dollar sharply increase trade in the currency market. If the speech Janet Yellen will contain signals interest rate rise in the United States before the end of the year, the US dollar strengthened sharply on the currency market


10:00 - Germany's producer price index for October

11:00 - ECB President Mario Draghi

18:00 - the index of leading indicators CB in the US in October

21:00 - Report oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the index - 452 active rigs

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*)presented material expresses the personal views of the author and is not a direct guide to conduct trading operations.    

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