Another Retreat for Oil, Euro Slides after ECB, SPX Throttles DAX

Another Retreat for Oil, Euro Slides after ECB, SPX Throttles DAX

21 October 2016, 10:15
Mohammad Soubra
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Another Retreat for Oil, Euro Slides after ECB, SPX Throttles DAX


Talking Points:

  • The S&P 500 refused to back tentative technical breakouts from DAX and Nikkei 225
  • Both Aussie Dollar and Oil retreat as data and news quash another effort to break from congestion
  • ECB refuses to light the Taper fuse, will top event risk Friday (EU summit, Fed speak, etc) charge EUR/USD?

Tentative breakouts and trends are being cut down before they can even gain traction. This past session, the bullish Aussie Dollar break fromAUD/USDandEUR/AUDwas culled by the release of disappointing employment statistics. Noteworthy technical breaks for Japan (Nikkei 225) and Germany (DAX) met opposition from an S&P 500 banner bearer. Even oil's move back to high-profile resistance in 51.50 once again proved a doomed effort. It is difficult to charge breakouts - much less trends - in these general market conditions. Short of a systemic change in conviction, a full charge in a fundamental them that can build over time is necessary to keep fair winds. And, those weather patterns are difficult to come by.

The ECB rate decision this past session had the chance to tap into a deep fount of fundamental charge: shifting monetary policy views. Yet, the opportunity to lay out expectations for the eventual 'taper' of their expansive monetary policy program was deferred to December amid reference to further accommodation through March and perhaps September. The European Central Bank is running out of viable assets to purchase under its current program structure, but concern over the response to a first step towards normalization makes it an easy call to delay. EUR/USD and otherEurocrosses suffered whiplash through the event and eventually saw an extended slide.

While there is notable event risk scheduled through the end of the week, its capacity to jump start activity where more capable catalysts have failed is low. Attempting another shove on the Euro, the EU leaders summit and Euro-area consumer sentiment survey don't hit on the themes that matter most to global investors. However, the same EU-28 meeting (including the UK) as well as the working lunch between UK Prime Minister May and EC President Juncker may stir a consistently volatile picture of the troubled picture of the eventual Brexit negotiations. For those watching the Dollar's (DXY) climb to seven-month highs, Fed speak may struggle to generate rate forecasting traction with debate over the next hike pushed out to the December meeting. We discuss the struggle to produce breakouts - and how that bolsters the appeal ofAUD/JPY



 

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