Dollar Rally and S&P 500 Slide Revived but Is There Trend Here?

Dollar Rally and S&P 500 Slide Revived but Is There Trend Here?

14 September 2016, 05:55
Mohammad Soubra

Dollar Rally and S&P 500 Slide Revived but Is There Trend Here?



Talking Points:

  • Dollar revived its run after Census data shows Fed support but unmoved rate forecasts curb trend potential
  • Another strong tack for the S&P 500 may not solidify trend, but it does show a steadfast growth in volatility
  • Will higher-risk Brexit data and sliding supply-demand statistics charge the Pound and Oil Prices next?

The market's two most impressive moves of late - the tumble from US equities and climb for the US Dollar - have been quickly resuscitated. However, as frequent as the volatility bouts and promising as the rising conviction may be, there is reason to question the drive behind these critical financial developments. For the Dollar, the upswing is stilling with broad ranges for indexes and the most liquid pairings. More importantly, the motivation for this climb seems tied to rate speculation. The US Census Bureau's annual update offered another injection of fuel into the piston by showing a strong reading for wage growth. Yet, beyond this update, we remain in the 'blackout' period before the FOMC's September 21st (next Wednesday) rate decision. It is tough to ground conviction of a hike against such contentious odds.

For equities and the risk trends that they represent, it is easier to gain traction. Not owing to an abundance of fundamental catalysts that can finally get the engine on speculative deleveraging turning over. Rather, sentiment itself is the most capable motivator for gaining a speculative head of steam. The breadth of the risk unwind has yet to truly stretch and momentum is so far unproven given the hurdle keeping risk trends from reversing course. That said, there is some consistency in the volatility behind the markets.

With a Dollar run that risks running out of fundamental fuel and risk trends attempting yet another return to life, certain major pairs should draw attention. If risk trends were to run, USD/JPY would be well positioned; but the maintenance of conviction breaks would boster the probabities of AUD/USD and USD/CAD near their respective range boundaries. If general market conditions continue to be held in check; there are a number of remarkable technical opportunities across the Aussie, Canadian and Kiwi Dollar crosses. For scheduled event risk, the upcoming session will prime another effort to jump start Brexit speculation via UK jobless claims, though follow through will depend heavily on the concern for the BoE decision and EU summit. Elsewhere, oil is suddenly awash in supply and demand statistics that undermine the commodity's speculative rise; but so far the flood gates have held out.

Share it with friends: