Latest Brexit phone poll has Remain ahead but it's not quite that simple

18 June 2016, 18:45
Sherif Hasan

BMG Research have published their final EU Referendum poll results 18 June 2016

I gave the heads up to watch out for this delayed poll result yesterday and as JG points out in the comments section ,it may well have been leaked and had some impact late in NY trading.

  • final phone poll for the Scottish Herald has Remain on 53.3% vs Leave on 46.7%
  • including the undecided (Don't know/prefer not to say : Remain 46% vs Leave 43%. Undecideds 11%
  • online poll has Leave 55% Remain / Leave 45%

Important to look beyond the headline here and read the BMG Research results in more detail given that the Undecideds still hold the balance of power.

Say BMG:

Online Poll shows large shift to Leave
BMG's Online EU Referendum tracker shows big shift to Leave, now on 51%(+6), and Remain down 2pts on 41% (DK/PNTS = 9%).

Labour support critical for remain.
Labour supporters could easily be deciding factor, even staying at home may hand referendum to Leave. Labour are more than two-to-one in favour of remaining in the EU, but if a significant minority end up staying at home, it could be the tipping point that secures victory for the Leave camp.

A class divide.
There is a strong class divide, with those in higher occupational classes (AB or C1) far more likely to vote to remain (AB = 58% Remain, C1 57% Remain excluding DKs), whereas those from the lowest social grades are backing brexit with much greater conviction (DE = 57% Leave). C2 on a knife-edge.

Job security a factor?
Those aged 65+ and those retired favour brexit (58% and 56% for Leave respectively), whereas younger people and those both in work and looking for work strongly in favour of remaining (18-24 64% for Remain).

Full report here

When all's said and done though a poll is a poll and the real result is the only one that matters and yet to be known. The Undecideds ( of which I am still one) still hold the balance of power.

With more polls due to be released up until the 23 June vote the pound will continue to be at their mercy, for both bulls and bears.

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