Get Ready for FOMC, Brexit Referendum Next Two Weeks

10 June 2016, 14:38
Mohammad Soubra

Get Ready for FOMC, Brexit Referendum Next Two Weeks


Talking Points:

- AUD/USD, EUR/USD key reversals give USD near-term bullish bias.

- USD/JPY easing back weighs on risk assets - equities lower.

- With FX volatility edging higher again, it's the right time to review risk management principles to protect your capital.

Enjoy your last stress-free (relatively speaking) weekend for the next few weeks. Indeed, with the Federal Reserve's June rate decision on Wednesday - one which has seen rate expectations swing around 25% the past week - and the UK's EU referendum on Thursday, June 23, market volatility is very likely to ratchet up. Most asset classes haven't seen a pick up in volatility, but as everyone knows, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Being in the market right now is like sitting on the beach after a day in the sun, but knowing full-well that there are dark storm clouds approaching quickly on the horizon; it's a matter of time before the downpour begins. Market sensitivity to FOMC meetings with new staff projections and a Fed Chair press conference is always higher than in normal meetings otherwise; and the absolute decimation of June rate expectations leaves plenty of room for the Fed to surprise with misconstrued hawkish language that could drive risk markets into a tailspin.

After FOMC? Any calm in the market will just be the eye of the storm - the battle is only half over. The June 23 UK's EU referendum is poised to bring higher levels of volatility across GBP-crosses the next two weeks, with annualized measures of two- and three-week volatility pricing in +/- 1.2-2.1% daily moves through the referendum. If you haven't reviewed your risk management principles leading up to the Brexit referendum, you should do so as soon as possible - now's not the time to be clever. 

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