Asia Roundup: Asian Markets End Lower ahead of NFP Data, Oil Slides While Gold supported Above $1230 - Friday, April 1st

Asia Roundup: Asian Markets End Lower ahead of NFP Data, Oil Slides While Gold supported Above $1230 - Friday, April 1st

Market Roundup

• China March Official Manufacturing PMI at 50.2 (Reuters Poll 49.3) Vs 49.0 in February. 
• China March Official Services PMI Rises to 53.8 Vs February 52.7. 
• Indonesia March CPI 0.19% M/M (Reuters Poll +0.20%) – Stats Bureau. 
• Indonesia March CPI 4.45% Y/Y (Reuters Poll +4.45%) – Stats Bureau. 
• Indonesia March Core CPI 3.50% Y/Y (Reuters Poll +3.60%). 
• Japan Final March Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.1 (Vs Flash 49.1, Feb Final 50.1). 
• Japan March Manufacturing PMI Survey Shows Biggest Contraction in Activity since Feb ’13. 
• China March Caixin Manufacturing PMI Rises to 49.7, Highest in 13 Months But Still Points to Contraction (Vs Poll 48.2, Feb 48.0). 
• China March Caixin PMI Shows Output, New Orders, Output Prices Return to Growth, But Job Losses, Weak Exports Continue. 
• South Korea March Manufacturing PMI at 49.5 Vs 48.7 in Feb -Nikkei/Markit. 
• South Korea March PMI for New Export Orders 49.3 Vs 49.6 in Feb -Nikkei/Markit. 
• PBOC Sets Yuan Mid-Point at 6.4585 / Dlr Vs Last Close 6.4490. 
• China's Xi Says No Country Should Stimulate Exports via Competitive Currency Devaluation – Xinhua. 
• Singapore Q1 Private Home Prices -0.7% Qtr/Qtr -URA Flash Estimate. 
• Japan Fin Min Aso - Leading Indicators Show Capex is Rising, Which is Good Trend for Economy. 
• Japan Fin Min Aso - Some Companies Are Becoming A Little Cautious, But Overall Companies are Still Confident about Future.
• BOJ Tankan - March Big Manufacturers Index Hits Lowest Level since June 2013. 
• BOJ Tankan - March Big Non-Manufacturers Index Hits Lowest since March 2015. 
• BOJ Tankan - March Big Non-manufacturing Index Worsens For First Time in 6 Quarters. 
• BOJ Official - EM Slowdown Likely Behind Worsening of Big Manufacturers Sentiment. 
• BOJ Official - Some Firms are Forgoing Capex due to Global Economic Uncertainty, but No Sign Capex is Losing Momentum. 
• BOJ Official - Sentiment Worsened for Big and Small Manufacturers, Non-manufacturing for 1st Time since June 2014 When Effect of Sales Tax Hike Hit Economy. 
• BOJ Tankan - March Big Manufacturers Index +6 (Reuters Poll: +8). 
• BOJ Tankan - June Big Manufacturers Index Seen At +3 (Reuters Poll: +6). 
• BOJ Tankan - March Big Non-Manufacturers Index +22 (Reuters Poll: +24). 
• Japan Econ Min Ishihara - Want to Closely Watch Capex Situation. 
• Japan Ishihara - No Change to Govt Stance to Pave Way for Sales Tax Rise to 10%. 
• South Korea Says March Exports -8.2% Vs Yr Earlier (Reuters Poll -10.4%). 
• South Korea Says March Imports -13.8% Vs Yr Earlier (Reuters Poll -13.1%). 
• South Korea March Trade Balance at Provisional +9.8bln vs Revised +7.4bln in February. 
• South Korea March average Exports per Working Day USD1.79bl vs Revised USD1.82bl in February. 
• South Korea March Consumer Price Index +1.0% Vs Yr Earlier (Reuters Poll +1.3%). 
• South Korea Says March Consumer Price Index -0.3% Vs February (Reuters Poll +0.1%). 
• South Korea Says March Core CPI +1.7% Vs Yr Earlier. 
• Australia Performance of manufacturing Index 58.1 in March Vs 53.5 in Feb, Highest since 2004. 
• Fed's Dudley Says Yellen's Message is if Economy Stays on Current Trajectory, Fed Will Gradually Raise Rates. 
• Dudley - Fed is Proceeding Cautiously because of uncertainty in Rest of World. 
• Dudley - Fed also Proceeding Cautiously Because of Risk Mgmt Considerations. 
• Dudley - Communication is Very Important in Terms of Making U.S. Monetary Policy Work. 
• Dudley - Negative Rates is not something that's on the table for the U.S. 
• Dudley - A Lot of Progress Has Been Made on Too Big to Fail.

Economic Data Ahead

• (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Norway Manufacturing PMI, previous 48.4, expected 48.5. 
• (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland Retail Sales, previous 0.2, expected 0.5%.    
• (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Spain Manufacturing PMI, previous 54.1. 
• (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, previous 51.6, expected 51.0. 
• (0345 ET/0745 GMT) Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI, previous 52.2, expected 52.5. 
• (0350 ET/0750 GMT) France Markit Manufacturing PMI, previous 49.6.  
• (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI, previous 50.4.   
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Unemployment Rate, previous 11.5%. 
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro zone Markit Manufacturing Final PMI, previous 51.4.    
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway Credit Indicator, previous 5.3%, expected 5.2%. 
• (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, previous 50.8, expected 51.2.
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone Unemployment Rate, previous 10.3%.

Key Events Ahead

    No events scheduled for the day.

FX Recap

USD: The dollar found some respite on Friday after steep quarterly losses against major rivals, as investors awaited a U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that could give clues to the monetary policy outlook. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, edged up about 0.1 percent to 94.677, after shedding more than 4 percent in the first quarter for its worst performance since the third quarter of 2010. It notched a five-month low of 94.319 in the previous session.

EUR/USD: The euro was steady at $1.1376, after gaining more than 4 percent for the quarter and hitting a more than 5-month high of $1.4120 on Thursday. Pair remains well supported above key resistance at $1.1342 marks and trading around $1.1379 mark. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support level at $1.1312. A daily close above key resistance at 1.1342 will drag the parity up towards $1.1469 marks. On the down side, key support level is seen at $1.1159/ $1.1057 marks.

USD/JPY: The Yen remains supported below 112.60 and trading around 112.16 levels. A daily close below key support level at 111.97 will drag the parity down towards at 110.66/ 108.75/107.51 marks thereafter. On the top side, key resistance levels are seen at 114.87/115.96 levels. The Bank of Japan Tankan manufacturing index of large-scale factories fell from 12 in the December quarter to 6 in the March quarter. In addition, Tankan Non manufacturing index also released with negative numbers at 22 q/q vs 25 q/q previous released.

GBP/USD: The Sterling slipped on Thursday and closed the quarter with its heaviest trade-weighted losses since late 2008, having been hurt by global financial turmoil and worries over a possible British exit from the European Union. Pair hovers around key support at $1.4357 marks. Alternatively, a sustained break below key support level will drag the parity down at $1.4057 marks. A daily close above $1.4357 will take the parity up towards key resistances at $1.4504/$1.4602.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged down about 0.1 percent to $0.7647, but remained not far from a nine-month peak of $0.7723 set on Thursday, underpinned by surprisingly upbeat Chinese manufacturing surveys. Australian dollar remains flat around $0.7650. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at $0.7498 levels. On the other side, a sustained close above $0.7672 will drag the parity up towards $0.7725 levels. On the downside, a sustained break below $0.7433 support levels will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7365 low. Aussie gains as China’s factory activity expands in March. The Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 49.0 in February to nine-month high of 50.2 in March. On the other side, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for March came in at 49.7, better than the level of 48.3 expected and 48.0 for the final in February.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar paused at $0.6904, from a fresh nine-month high of $0.6968 scaled on Thursday. It rose nearly 5 percent in March, the biggest monthly gain since November. That too will be unwelcome new for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which cut rates early in March in part to head off any further appreciation in the currency. Pair hovers around $0.69 marks and Short term bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at $0.6965. Key support was found at $0.6750, with resistance at $0.7002 levels.

Equities Recap

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index slid 2.81% to 16,287.42 points, while the broader Topix index was down 2.77% at 1,309.87 points. Chinese markets were also on a losing streak, with the Shanghai Composite index falling 0.66% to 2,984.08 points and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index sliding 0.84% to 20,601.71 points. South Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.67% lower at 1,982.35 points. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 equity index was trading 1.67% lower to 4,998.00 points on Friday afternoon in Sydney. New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 index slipped 0.33% to 6,729.86 points with around half an hour left of trade.

Commodities Recap

Oil futures fell in Asian trade on Friday as oversupply, a strengthening dollar and falls in regional stock markets all weighed on sentiment. But another fall in U.S. oil output in January helped to limit the losses. Brent crude for June delivery fell 46 cents to $39.87 a barrel as of 0549 GMT. The May contract, which expired on Thursday, settled up 34 cents at $39.60 a barrel. Brent jumped 6 percent in the first quarter, its first quarterly increase since rising 15 percent in the second quarter of 2015. Gold steadied on Friday, set for a weekly rise and holding onto its biggest quarterly gain in nearly 30 years, but investors were cautious ahead of a U.S. jobs report. Gold has climbed 1.2 percent so far this week, which included the close on Thursday to its best quarterly performance since 1986, a 16 percent jump, as global growth concerns diminished expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes this year. A tumble in the global stock market also triggered safe-haven demand for the metal. Spot gold was steady at $1,230.61 an ounce by 0238 GMT, following a 0.6 percent rise overnight.

Treasuries Recap

10-year U.S. treasury yield stood at 1.800 percent vs U.S. close of 1.784 percent on Thursday. BOJ offers to lend Y 8.4285 trln of JGBs on spot basis through 4/4 as a secondary source of JGB. New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields 5 basis points lower sending yields 5 to 6 basis points lower across the curve. Australian government bond futures eased, with the three-year bond contract falling 4 ticks to 98.080. The 10-year contract also shed 4 ticks to 97.4750, while the 20-year contract lost 3.5 ticks to 96.8950.

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