After a six-week break, the Australian dollar in the middle of last month began to decline and has been for the past month, the weakest of the G8-currencies.
Goldman Sachs sees five main reasons for this decline.
1- The continued fall in commodity prices. Iron ore is now at $ 68. This is 50% lower than at the beginning of the year and 12% lower than in the beginning of November.
2- The continuing weakness of the Chinese economy
3- The total increase in the US dollar on a trade-weighted basis based on the good performance of the US economy and the Fed's rhetoric about raising rates in mid-2015
4 Weak data on the Australian economy caused discounting at least one RBA rate cut
5 And recently there was still an aversion to risk.
What's next?
Goldman Sachs sees AUDUSD 0.83 after 3 months, 0.81 at 6 months and 0.79 in 12 months.
Goldman Sachs believes that the 0.79 gap between the deterioration of terms of trade of Australia and AUD will be eliminated, and that the market is already included in the current rate of at least one rate cut RBA. McAuley NICHOLAS LUDANOV
