The chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, in his economic commentary, points out the leading economic indicator released Thursday showed a 0.8% monthly advance and a 6.3% year-over-year gain in September.
This rate, he says, is consistent with annual real GDP just under 4.5%.
Plus, the one-month diffusion index jumped to a four-year high of 90%.
Usually, within six months of a recession, the year-over-year trend turns negative while the diffusion index falls below 30%.
“Looking at the situation another way, based on where both the YoY LEI trend and the diffusion indices are now, and tracing them through the classic business cycle, we are at least two years away from the next recession,” he says.
What does that mean for stocks SPX, +0.71% ?
“The reality is that bear markets do not just pop out of the air,” he said. “They are caused by tight money, recessions, or both. These conditions do not apply, nor will they until 2016 at the earliest.”
