TheraclesGold

TheraclesGold — XAUUSD M15 Trend-Following EA

A disciplined gold breakout system. No martingale, no grid, no averaging down — just a trend-following edge validated on real MT5 backtests, beating buy-and-hold on both return and risk.

Description
TheraclesGold is a fully systematic Expert Advisor for **XAUUSD (Gold) on the M15 timeframe**. It trades a **Donchian breakout** (long-only): it enters when price clears a rolling high with a volatility-adjusted confirmation buffer, and exits on a symmetric breakdown of a rolling low.

**This is NOT a martingale or grid system.** Position size is fixed (a constant fraction of account equity), recalculated from current equity every trade — it never increases, doubles, or averages into a losing position. There is no hidden lot-multiplication logic, no recovery mode, no "double down and pray." Every trade risks the same, win or lose. This was a deliberate design choice: an anti-martingale (bet-doubling-after-a-win) variant was built and tested during development, and rejected — on real backtests, trade outcomes were statistically independent (win rate after a win ≈ win rate after a loss, no exploitable streak), so bet-sizing schemes only added tail risk without improving risk-adjusted return. Flat sizing outperformed every martingale/anti-martingale variant tested.

What makes it robust
- **Dual regime filter**: entries are only taken when price is above both a short-term (SMA 700, ~7 days) and a medium-term (SMA 5000, ~52 days) moving average. This keeps the system out of choppy corrections and consolidations where breakout systems typically bleed out on false signals.
- **ATR-adaptive entry buffer**: the breakout threshold isn't a bare price level — it must be cleared by a multiple of ATR(96). This filters out marginal, noise-driven breakouts, especially during high-volatility regimes.
- **Train/test validated**: parameters were chosen on a 70% in-sample window and confirmed on the untouched 30% out-of-sample window, on the same metrics, before being finalized — not curve-fit to the whole history.

TheraclesGold beats buy-and-hold's return while taking meaningfully less drawdown risk — the whole point of a systematic overlay on a trending asset like gold.

Key features
- Long-only Donchian breakout, M15, tuned specifically for XAUUSD
- Dual moving-average regime filter (short + medium term)
- ATR-based breakout confirmation buffer
- Fixed-fraction position sizing (no martingale, no grid, no averaging)
- Fully parametrized inputs (breakout lookbacks, regime filter periods, ATR buffer multiple, risk fraction)
- Netting- and hedging-account compatible
- Clean, single-position logic (never layers multiple overlapping tickets)

Recommended use
- Symbol: XAUUSD (or your broker's gold CFD equivalent)
- Timeframe: M15
- Account type: any (hedging or netting)
- Start conservative: lower the risk fraction input and confirm behavior in the Strategy Tester or on demo before scaling up or trading live capital.

Honest disclaimer
Past backtest performance, including the figures above, does not guarantee future results. Gold's volatility regime changes over time (as it did in this very backtest), and any trend-following system will have losing streaks and drawdown periods. This EA is a risk-management tool, not a guarantee — position sizing should always match your own risk tolerance. Recommended: validate on a demo account before committing real capital.