ICT Correlation SMT Divergence Honest Stats MT4
- Indicadores
- Versão: 1.1
- Atualizado: 15 outubro 2026
Most SMT indicators mark the divergences. This one also checks whether they work.
ICT Correlation SMT Divergence Honest Stats compares your chart with a related market (gold with silver, EURUSD with GBPUSD, BTC with ETH, US500 with US100) and marks every SMT divergence. A table measures on your own chart whether price turned after an SMT more often than after a normal new high or low. Free, part of the Honest Stats series.
MT5 version | ICT Killzones Honest Stats MT4 (free) | ICT FVG Honest Stats MT4 (free) | ICT Liquidity Levels Honest Stats MT4 (free) | TrueRisk Trade Panel MT4 (free) | TrueRisk Account Guard MT4 (daily loss limit)
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What it draws
- Red arrow above a bar: bearish SMT. One of the two markets made a new 20-bar high and the other did not
- Blue arrow below a bar: bullish SMT, the same at the lows
- Hover over an arrow to see which market made the new high or low and which one didn't
- The second market is picked automatically for common pairs: gold and silver, EURUSD and GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD, BTCUSD and ETHUSD, US500 and US100, US30 and US500 (with your broker's names and suffix). Type any other symbol in the inputs
The honest stats table
- Signals: how many times each case happened on the loaded history (a repeat within 5 bars counts once)
- Turned: how often price was lower 6 bars later after a high, or higher after a low
- Average move: the average change of price over those 6 bars
The rows "Both made a new high" and "Both made a new low" are the comparison: normal breakouts, where both markets agreed. If SMT works, price must turn after an SMT more often than after a normal breakout. The lines under the table show the difference in percentage points and how big a difference luck alone could produce (95% range).
Why the comparison matters
After any new high, price falls about half of the time over the next few bars. An SMT signal that is right 50% of the time sounds like something, but if a normal new high does the same, the divergence added nothing.
What we found (same indicator, MetaTrader 5 history)
- Gold and silver, 1 hour, September 2011 to October 2026 (52,449 shared bars): after a bearish SMT price fell 50% of the time, after a normal new high 49%. After a bullish SMT it rose 51% of the time, after a normal new low 54%. No edge
- EURUSD and GBPUSD, 15 minutes, November 2022 to October 2026: no edge either way
- US500 and US100, 1 hour, December 2015 to October 2026: no edge either way
- Our larger research test (216 settings on gold/silver and BTC/ETH, 1-hour to daily charts) found nothing on gold and silver and only a small hint in bearish signals on the BTC/ETH 4-hour chart
Check the pair and timeframe you trade before you rely on SMT.
How to use it
- Works on any symbol and timeframe where the second market has history too
- The first time, the second market's history may take a moment to load; the table updates by itself
- MetaTrader 4 downloads only part of the history at first (often about 2,000 bars). Scroll the chart back (Home key) and raise Tools > Options > Charts > Max bars in chart for more reliable numbers
- Only bars that both markets have are compared, so different trading hours don't distort the test
Limitations
- The stats only cover the history loaded on the chart
- Signals are measured on closed bars; a new high inside the current bar is not marked until the bar closes
- Past behaviour does not guarantee future behaviour. This is a measuring tool, not a trading signal
Inputs
- Second symbol: empty = automatic
- New high/low = beyond the last N bars: default 20
- Ignore repeat signals within N bars: default 5
- Mark signals on the last N bars: default 500
- Colours of bearish and bullish SMT
- Measure the move over the next N bars: default 6
- Show the honest stats table, table corner, font size
Support: if something doesn't work as expected, send me a private message first. I answer every message and fix problems quickly.
If it helped you, a short review in the Reviews tab helps other traders find it and tells me what to improve.
