Index Rebound Professional

Index Rebound Professional buys GER40 and US500 on the morning after a sharply oversold day and closes the trade the same day. It follows one simple rule, researched on years of data and confirmed on a verification period kept aside, with risk controls designed for prop firm rules.

The idea

A short-term mean-reversion strategy. After a sharp sell-off, stock indices tend to recover part of it in the following session. The EA trades only that session: it enters in the morning, exits before the close and never holds positions overnight.

How it works

• Signal: the 2-period RSI of the last daily candle is below 10.
• Entry: the next trading day at 09:00 Berlin time. Long trades only, one trade per day.
• Exit: 17:00 Berlin time on GER40, 15:30 New York time on US500, or at the stop loss.
• Stop loss: one daily ATR(14) below the entry price. No take profit.
• No martingale, no grid, no averaging, no DLLs.
• Info panel with the next-day trigger: the price below which today's daily close creates a signal for the next trading day.

Risk management

• Lot size from a fixed percentage of equity at the stop loss.
• Cap on the total open risk of the account, counting positions on all symbols and from all EAs.
• Daily loss guard, reset at Berlin midnight, based on the initial capital or on the day's starting balance.
• Automatic conversion of server time to Berlin and New York time, including the weeks when European and US daylight saving time do not match.

Backtest results

These are backtest and simulation results of the intraday rule traded by the EA, with estimated spread and slippage. They are not results of live trading. 1 R is the loss at the stop loss.

• GER40, May 2023 to September 2026: 86 trades, 65% winners, profit factor 2.55, average +0.16 R per trade.
• US500, April 2023 to September 2026: 81 trades, 56% winners, profit factor 1.96, average +0.15 R per trade.
• Both symbols, 1.25% risk per trade with a 1.5% cap: about +7% per year with a maximum drawdown of 5% in the 2023 to 2026 simulation. A more conservative model over 2019 to 2026 gave about +6% per year with a maximum drawdown of 9.5%.

This is a low-frequency strategy: about 22 signals per year per symbol, with weeks without trades. The edge per trade is modest, so expect flat years (2023 was one) and losing streaks.

Recommended setup

• Symbols: GER40 and US500, one chart each. The rule was researched on these two indices only.
• Timeframe: any. The signal uses daily candles.
• Risk: 1.25% per trade, total risk cap 1.5%, daily guard 2.5%.
• Broker server time "New York + 7 hours" (GMT+2 in winter, GMT+3 in summer) for automatic mode; fixed offsets for other brokers.
• A VPS, because the terminal must be running at entry and exit times.

Testing the demo

• Use GER40 or US500 with the recommended settings and the "Every tick" model, with M1 history if available.
• Set a realistic fixed spread instead of "Current", which can be very wide at the weekend.
• Test at least two or three years: with about 22 trades per year, a few months show very little.

A user manual in English and Italian explains every parameter, the recommended settings, backtesting and troubleshooting.

Risk warning: trading CFDs involves leverage and a high risk of loss. Backtest results do not guarantee future results. Test the EA on a demo account first.