Probability Cone

Probability Cone MT5 — Statistical Price Projection Indicator

Probability Cone MT5 is a technical analysis tool that projects statistically grounded price ranges forward on the chart. Using a log-normal volatility model — the same mathematical approach behind option pricing and quantitative risk tools — the indicator calculates where price is statistically likely to travel over a chosen time horizon.

Statistical Price Projection

Instead of eyeballing support, resistance, or a breakout target, Probability Cone MT5 derives an expected price range directly from the instrument's own recent volatility and, optionally, its drift. The result is an objective, continuously updating reference for how far a "normal" move should reasonably extend.

Visual Signal System

The indicator plots a projected cone with color-coded probability bands:

• Dodger Blue: Inner Band (Sigma 1, ~68% probability zone)
• Orange: Outer Band (Sigma 2, ~95% probability zone)
• Gray: Mid Line (statistical center of the projection)

An on-chart button cycles the anchor mode with a matching color code:

• Gray Button: Current Price anchor
• Blue Button: ZigZag Pivot anchor
• Red Button: Manual anchor (drag the marker to any point on the chart)

Core Components

The indicator combines several statistical and structural elements to build the projection:

• Log-Normal Volatility Model: Calculates mean and standard deviation of log returns over the lookback window.
• Drift Component: Optionally centers the cone on the instrument's average trend instead of a flat baseline.
• Adaptive Anchoring: Projects the cone from the current price, the last confirmed ZigZag pivot, or a manually placed, draggable point.
• Auto-Adaptive Lookback: Optionally sets the volatility window automatically to the distance between the anchor and the current bar, instead of a fixed bar count.
• Forward Extension: The cone automatically extends ahead of price as new bars form, so it never runs out mid-session.

Technical Parameters

• Detector Settings: Adjustment for Lookback Bars, Horizon Bars, and Sigma 1/Sigma 2 multipliers.
• Anchor Configuration: Full ZigZag settings (depth, deviation, backstep, search range, confirmation bars) plus manual anchor styling.
• Auto Lookback Bounds: Configurable minimum and maximum bars to keep the auto-adaptive window statistically stable.
• Compatibility: Designed for Forex, Indices, Commodities, and Crypto assets on all timeframes.

Key Features

• Non-Repainting Anchor: The ZigZag anchor only uses confirmed pivots, skipping the repaint zone.
• One-Click Mode Switching: Cycle between Current Price, ZigZag Pivot, and Manual anchoring directly from the chart.
• Breakout Alerts: Popup, sound, and push notification when price breaks the outer (95%) band, throttled to avoid spam.
• Live On-Chart Readout: Displays the active anchor mode, lookback used, drift/bar, and both probability ranges in real time.

Links:

For technical questions or further information, please contact me via my MQL5 Profile.