Technical Analysis
29 September 2026
Market Overview
Today’s key themes are broad dollar strength, weakness in cross-yen pairs, a sharp reversal lower in oil, a short-term correction in US equities and a rebound in BTC.
In FX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are showing strong sell signals across all timeframes. USD/CHF is showing strong buy signals across all timeframes, making it the clearest expression of dollar strength.
USD/JPY has rebounded to 157.42. The short-term and hourly charts are showing buy signals, while the daily chart is neutral. In contrast, cross-yen pairs remain broadly under selling pressure, reflecting yen buying against currencies other than the dollar.
In commodities, WTI crude oil has fallen sharply from US$96.37 to US$92.23, shifting from strong buy signals across all timeframes yesterday to broad sell signals today. Gold and silver are seeing short-term rebounds, but their daily downtrends remain unchanged.
Among equity indices, the Dow Jones is showing strong sell signals across all timeframes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are also strong sells from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart, although their daily charts remain bullish. By contrast, the DAX is showing strong buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart.
Key Changes Since the Previous Update
• WTI crude oil fell from 96.37 to 92.23, down around 4.3%.
• BTC/USD rose from 83,093 to 84,219, up around 1.4%.
• The Nasdaq 100 fell from 30,608.13 to 30,276.81, down around 1.1%.
• The S&P 500 fell from 7,743.41 to 7,683.69, down around 0.8%.
• The Dow Jones fell from 51,828.62 to 51,481.51, down around 0.7%.
• The DAX rose from 25,363.31 to 25,514.06, up around 0.6%.
• Silver futures fell from 61.675 to 61.073, down around 1.0%.
• The Nikkei 225 fell from 65,908.00 to 65,571.00, down around 0.5%.
The largest change is in WTI crude oil. After showing strong buy signals across all timeframes yesterday, it has shifted rapidly into broad selling territory today.
FX Market
EUR/USD 1.1334
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
EUR/USD has fallen further from 1.1371, with euro weakness and dollar strength continuing. The direction is aligned from the short-term charts through to the daily chart.
The preferred strategy remains selling on rallies.
GBP/USD 1.3225
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The pair had previously shown buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart, but it has now shifted back into broad selling territory. The short-term rebound appears to have ended, with the daily downtrend resuming.
The preferred strategy remains selling on rallies.
USD/JPY 157.42
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is neutral.
USD/JPY has rebounded from 157.06, with dollar buying dominant in the short term. However, the neutral daily chart means a medium-term upside resumption has not yet been confirmed.
Short-term buying on dips remains preferable. However, caution is needed near 158.00, where official comments and intervention concerns could trigger a sharp pullback.
USD/CHF 0.8347
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
This is the clearest bullish FX pair in the current market. Dollar strength and Swiss franc weakness are aligned from the short-term charts through to the daily chart.
The preferred strategy is buying on dips.
AUD/USD 0.6983
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The pair has broken below the psychologically important 0.7000 level, accelerating Australian dollar weakness and dollar strength. Even if a rebound develops, upside is likely to remain heavy.
The preferred strategy remains selling on rallies.
NZD/USD 0.5645
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
As with AUD/USD, the direction is aligned to the downside from the short-term charts through to the daily chart. Buying simply because the market appears oversold should be avoided.
The preferred strategy remains selling after rebounds.
Cross-Yen Pairs
EUR/JPY 178.42
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
Euro weakness and yen buying are reinforcing each other, and the downtrend remains intact.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
GBP/JPY 208.18
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
Although the price is broadly unchanged from the previous update, the technical picture remains bearish across all timeframes. Long positions should be avoided until the hourly sell signal begins to ease.
CHF/JPY 188.60
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
Swiss franc weakness driven by the rise in USD/CHF is combining with yen buying. This remains one of the clearest bearish cross-yen pairs.
EUR/GBP 0.8570
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The pound is relatively stronger than the euro. While EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both under selling pressure, the euro is facing greater downside pressure.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
AUD/JPY 109.92
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The pair has broken below 110.00, with Australian dollar weakness and yen buying aligned. Selling on rallies remains preferable, though fresh downside entries immediately after a key break should be approached cautiously.
NZD/JPY 88.85
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The combination of NZD/USD weakness and USD/JPY dynamics also supports a bearish view.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
CAD/JPY 110.87
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The sharp oil decline is weighing on the Canadian dollar, while yen buying is adding further downside pressure. This is one of the more clearly aligned bearish cross-yen pairs.
AUD/NZD 1.2371
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a buy.
NZD strength is dominant in the short term and on the hourly chart, while the Australian dollar remains favoured on the daily chart. With the timeframes in conflict, it is better to wait for clearer direction.
EUR/CHF 0.9461
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, while the hourly chart is a buy and the daily chart is a strong buy.
This appears to be a short-term correction within a broader uptrend. Once short-term selling pressure subsides, it could become a buying-on-dips candidate in line with the higher-timeframe trend.
Commodities
Gold Futures 4177.97
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
Gold has shifted from broad selling into a short-term rebound. However, the neutral hourly chart and strongly bearish daily chart mean this should not yet be treated as a full trend reversal.
Short-term buying on dips is possible, while selling on rallies remains preferable from a daily-chart perspective.
XAU/USD 4145.91
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
As with gold futures, this is a rebound after a sharp decline. A move to a buy signal on the hourly chart would support continuation, but the daily bias remains bearish.
Silver Futures 61.073
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
A short-term rebound is underway, but hourly weakness remains more pronounced than in gold. If the rebound loses momentum, selling on rallies becomes the preferred approach.
XAG/USD 60.7295
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, while the 15-minute chart through to the daily chart are strong sells.
Short-term buying and the medium- to long-term downtrend are in conflict. Until the 15-minute chart improves, this is not a market to chase higher.
WTI Crude Oil 92.23
The 5-minute chart through to the hourly chart are strong sells, while the daily chart is also a sell.
WTI has shifted from strong buys across all timeframes yesterday to broad selling today. The price has fallen around 4.3% from 96.37, largely reversing the previous day’s advance.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies. However, because the direction has changed so rapidly, position size should be reduced and renewed weakness after a rebound should be confirmed before entering.
Natural Gas 3.080
The 5-minute chart through to the hourly chart are strong sells, while the daily chart is a strong buy.
This is a short-term correction within a daily uptrend. With short-term selling still strong, daily-chart longs should wait for the hourly chart to improve.
BTC/USD 84,219
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals.
BTC has improved clearly from the previous hourly sell signal, with buy signals now aligned from the short term through to the daily chart. It has risen around 1.4% since the previous update, suggesting an upside resumption.
The preferred strategy is buying on dips.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones 51,481.51
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The Dow has shifted from short-term buying into broad selling and remains the weakest major US equity index.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
S&P 500 7,683.69
The 5-minute chart through to the hourly chart are strong sells, while the daily chart remains a buy.
This is a short-term correction within a daily uptrend. With the hourly chart still strongly bearish, it is better not to rush into buying dips and instead wait for short-term reversal signals.
Nasdaq 100 30,276.81
The 5-minute chart through to the hourly chart are strong sells, while the daily chart remains a strong buy.
The index has fallen around 1.1% from the previous update. The daily uptrend remains intact, but the short-term correction has deepened.
Once short-term selling eases and the 15-minute chart improves, it could become a buying-on-dips candidate.
DAX 25,514.06
The 5-minute chart through to the hourly chart are strong buys, while the daily chart is neutral.
The DAX has improved sharply from the previous sell signals. The short-term and hourly uptrend is clear, though the neutral daily chart means this is better treated as a short-term buying-on-dips opportunity.
UK 100 10,714.80
The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart is a buy.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but short-term momentum has weakened. It is better to wait for clearer direction rather than pursue the move aggressively.
CAC 40 8,095.05
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
This is a short-term rebound within a daily downtrend. Rather than chasing the short-term advance, it is preferable to wait for the rebound to stall and then look for selling opportunities.
Nikkei 225 65,571.00
The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is a buy, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a buy.
The Nikkei has rebounded from the previous short-term sell signal. The daily uptrend remains intact, but the neutral hourly chart means that a medium-term upside resumption has not yet been confirmed.
It remains a short-term buying-on-dips candidate.
Strength Rankings
S Rank
• USD/CHF
• BTC/USD
A Rank
• DAX short-term and hourly charts
• USD/JPY short-term charts
• Nikkei 225 short-term and daily charts
• EUR/CHF hourly and daily charts
B Rank
• Gold short-term charts
• CAC 40 short-term charts
Weakness Rankings
S Rank
• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• EUR/JPY
• GBP/JPY
• CHF/JPY
• CAD/JPY
A Rank
• EUR/GBP
• AUD/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• WTI crude oil
• Dow Jones
B Rank
• Silver hourly and daily charts
• S&P 500 short-term charts
• Nasdaq 100 short-term charts
• Natural gas short-term charts
Trading Strategy
Buy Bias
• USD/CHF
• BTC/USD
• DAX short term
Buying-on-Dips Candidates
• USD/JPY short term
• EUR/CHF hourly and daily charts
• Nikkei 225
• Gold short term
Sell Bias
• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• EUR/JPY
• GBP/JPY
• CHF/JPY
• EUR/GBP
• AUD/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• WTI crude oil
• Dow Jones
Selling-on-Rallies Candidates
• Silver
• CAC 40
• S&P 500 short term
• Nasdaq 100 short term
• Natural gas short term
Markets Requiring Direction Confirmation
• Gold
• AUD/NZD
• UK 100
• Nikkei 225 hourly chart
Key Points
The clearest buy candidates are USD/CHF and BTC/USD.
The clearest sell candidates are the dollar pairs, cross-yen pairs, WTI crude oil and the Dow Jones.
WTI shifted from broad buying to broad selling in a single day. With trend changes occurring very quickly, positions should be based on the current direction rather than assuming the previous day’s trend will continue.
Cross-yen pairs remain aligned in favour of yen buying. Holding multiple short positions in these pairs can create overlapping exposure to the same yen-strength theme. It is better to select the weakest currency and limit the number of positions.
