📉 [Pre-Weekend Market Enters Unstable Position Adjustment Phase] – Watch for Opportunities in USDCAD and CADJPY
📉 [Pre-Weekend Market Enters Unstable Position Adjustment Phase] – Watch for Opportunities in USDCAD and CADJPY
✅ Market Overview | USD Strength Pauses → Trend May Revert to Dollar Weakness
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USD/JPY attempted a rebound but remains capped on the upside.
→ Yesterday's temporary USD buying was triggered by a rebound in U.S. equities and bonds.
→ However, persistent concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits and structural dollar weakness continue to weigh on USD/JPY. -
U.S. long-term yields briefly rose during early Asia trade, supporting the dollar, but 10-year yields later fell sharply during London hours.
→ With the weekend approaching and trade negotiation risks looming, markets are entering an unstable phase of position adjustment. -
EUR/USD recovered into the 1.13 range but upward momentum remains cautious.
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Cross yen pairs lack clear direction, continuing to reflect dollar-led indecision.
📅 Key Economic Event to Watch (Today)
| Region | Event | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Retail Sales (March) | May affect CAD into month-end |
| → Expectations are low, so a positive surprise could spark CAD buying. | ||
| → A downside break in USD/CAD would be the key technical signal to watch. |
🎯 Strategy Summary
| Asset | Status | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Heavy near 144.00 | Sell on rallies; cautious ahead of weekend speeches and trade headlines |
| EUR/USD | Holding above 1.13 | USD weakness continues, but cautious on further EUR upside |
| EUR/JPY | Range-bound | Cross-yen lacks direction; favors short-term range trading |
| USD/CAD | Elevated levels | If retail sales data surprises to the upside, look for a bearish break. Otherwise, stay neutral |
| BTC/USD | Near $110,000 | Selling pressure has eased; bullish sentiment remains intact |
📌 Summary
Markets are driven by headlines around interest rates and trade negotiations, leading to choppy, uncertain conditions.
We may be seeing a return to a USD sell-on-rally trend.
Today, Canada's retail sales data could be a key mover—USDCAD and CADJPY offer potential trading opportunities.
Watch for increased volatility depending on upcoming weekend events and policy remarks.
