Press review - page 452

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Traders should be particularly mindful of potential volatility surrounding the US Presidential Election on November 8. It is difficult to predict how markets will react, and extremely one-sided GBP positioning warns of volatility on any surprises."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The deadlock seems unlikely to be broken until US voters have said their peace. This may not necessarily offer immediate direction however as the greenback recovers alongside risk appetite, inverting current dynamics but yielding the same conflicted outcome. Complicating things further, the polls are close enough that an inconclusive election result echoing the Bush/Gore fiasco in 2000 is not an entirely remote possibility. On balance, all this makes for a clouded landscape and traders would be wise to tread cautiously."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)

NZD/USD - "Key speeches by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, St Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer may impact the FX market and boost the appeal of the greenback as central bank officials appear to be making a more collective approach to prepare U.S. households and businesses for a December rate-hike. It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will stay on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2017 as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ but the 8 to 2 split suggests the permanent voting-members are in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’ As a result, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may largely advocate a wait-and-see approach going into 2017, and the permanent-voting members may continue to favor a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy as the central bank remains ‘data-dependent.’"

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Event risks from home are expected to add volatility to Yuan rates as well. China’ foreign reverses, exports and CPI reads for October are the top indicators to keep an eye on. In September, China’s foreign reserves dropped -$18 billion to $3.166 trillion, the lowest level since May 2011. If the holdings continue to fall, China’s Central Bank is less likely to support the Yuan when it devalues against the Dollar as this will further burn foreign reserves. Also, China’s overseas shipments in Dollar terms unexpectedly shrank -10% in September. A weaker Yuan may have helped to ease the pressure on exporters: The Yuan lost -1.57% onshore and -1.58% offshore in October. In terms of the headline inflation, multiple Chinese financial institutions forecast that the CPI will rise back to above 2% in October. A higher CPI may reduce the odds of the PBOC introducing further easing measures, and thus, may support Yuan rates."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday as markets contemplate the possible impact of a Trump victory. A lookback at previous elections suggests that the broader implications for trend are rather limited, but given the historic nature of this year’s election cycle, the event could have a profound impact on near-term price action. Over the past three cycles, gold prices have closed higher on the week with Election Day typically charging the bulk of the volatility. With that said, the focus remains on the technical picture heading into Tuesday with prices holding just below near-term resistance into the close of the week."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY: Scenarios & Tactical Strategies For Trading The US Elections - Deutsche Bank (based on the article)

 

1. "Clinton victory + Republican House and Senate: Risk of continued political turmoil. Dead-locked fiscal policies."
   
2. "Clinton victory + Republican House + Democratic Senate: Somewhat reduced uncertainty. Concern about political situation and fiscal administration."
   
3. "Trump victory + Republican House and Senate: Heightened expectations for US fiscal policy. Increased global political uncertainty."
   
4. "Trump victory + Republican House + Democratic Senate: Brake on more aggressive US fiscal policy. Increased global political uncertainty."

Scenarios 1 and 2 - "We would recommend selling if USD/JPY rose to around 105 or higher."

Scenarios 3 and 4 - "Our tactical approach to USD/JPY would be to sell on Trump-favorable news about the election process, buy back on confirmation of the results of his victory, then gauge the timing to build short positions."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 29 pips range price movement

2016-11-08 02:33 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 278B
• forecast data is 366B
• actual data is 325B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From ForexLive article: China October trade balance: CNY +325.25bn (expected CNY366.61bn, prior CNY278.35bn)

The trade surplus in yuan terms, the USD terms data will come a little later. For the month of October. China trade balance: +325.25 bn yuan. A miss on expectations.

• expected is CNY366.61bn, prior was CNY278.35bn

Exports (CNY) y/y: -3.2% MISS

• expected is -0.8%, prior was -5.6% 

Imports (CNY) y/y: +3.2% MISS

• expected is +5.0%, prior was +2.2%

--
The "USD terms" should be soon ... OK, here they come ...

China trade balance USD +49.06bn. Surplus smaller than expected but up from the prior month.

• expected is $51.7bn, prior was $41.99bn

Exports (USD) y/y:  -7.3% MISS

• expected is -6.0%, prior was -10.0%

Imports (USD terms) y/y : -1.4% MISS

• expected is -1.0%, prior was -1.9% 

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USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory Production and 12 pips range price movement

2016-11-08 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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From official report: 

• "This is the first quarterly estimate for Index of Production (IoP) covering data post-EU referendum. Quarterly estimate for production output decreased by 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016. The largest downward pressure came from manufacturing, which fell by 0.9%, partially offset by a rise in mining and quarrying of 4.3%."
• "The monthly picture shows a decrease of 0.4% compared with August 2016. Mining and quarrying was the main sector to show a fall of 3.8%, partially offset by an increase in manufacturing of 0.6%. Users should note that we always warn against overly interpreting 1 month's figures."

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GBP/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by U.K. Factory Production news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Producer Price Index and 299 pips range price movement

2016-11-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - PPI]

• past data is 0.1%
• forecast data is 0.9%
• actual data is 1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - PPI] = Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producer.

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From aastocks article: China Oct PPI Up 1.2% YoY, vs Estimates of Up 0.9%

• "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that in October 2016, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% monthly and rose 1.2% yearly, as compared to market expectation of rising 0.9% yearly; purchaser price index rose 0.9% monthly and 0.9% yearly."

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USD/CNH M5: 299 pips range price movement by China Producer Price Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

German DAX - from bear market rally to the bullish reversal irrespective off the analytics forecasts (adapted from the article)

Some analytics are forecasting for Dax Index to be in bearish market condition with 10,000 strong support level as a nearest bearish target for the price to be bounced to above:

"DAX is turning strongly to the downside from a new high, so we believe that index is trapped in a new corrective pattern; a very complex one that can either be an Elliott Wave flat or an Elliott Wave triangle. As things stands at the moment, we favor the flat that is pointing down for wave five of C which could then form a bottom at 10000-10100 area."

But, anyway, the intra-day H4 price was bounced from 10,195 support level to above for the breakout as a bear market rally. For now, the price is testing 10,583 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started.

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal area to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is breaking 50.0% Fibo level at 10,509 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.