On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 169

 

Mm-hmm....

If you study carefully this picture I found in ancient manuscripts:


the rabid members of this branch are a long way from the Grail (the Silent House)...

May God bless them in their eternal search for the Truth.

Amen.

 
Younga:

discard - I will try to draw a picture, for example a position (one of 3 legs) is open to buy

point A is an arbitrary point. When the Take Profit of this pair is reached, the remaining pairs give "minus" (at this point both TP and SL should be set). The arbitrary point is also arbitrary, we select it ourselves.

I basically get the idea, but we should also take into account that in the general case the point value of pairs can be different, so a profit from TP of one pair will not equal a loss from SL of another pair.

 
khorosh:

I basically get the idea, but you also have to consider that in general the point value of pairs can be different, so the profit from the TP of one pair will not equal the loss from the SL of the other pair.

Probably we should use mql5 and take and stoploss should be calculated in dollars.

 
khorosh:

I basically get the idea, but you have to keep in mind that in general the point value of pairs can be different, so a profit from TP of one pair will not equal a loss from SL of another pair.

Also, spreads and swaps will pull quite a bit.

Pairs may go in one direction, and they may go in different directions. The regularity does not and cannot exist.

 
A suggestion. To remove from the forum threads on guru trading systems (such as this one) not confirmed by monitoring from the topicstarter (and there are many such threads).
All those in favour?
 

swap spreads compensated by take (stop loss) size

Maybe you can advise an mql5 advisor from kodobase (probably multicurrency)

 
Younga:

Apparently we will have to use mql5 to create the Take and Stop Loss in dollars.

So you, as far as I understood, were proceeding from the assumption that since SL=TP, the probabilities of reaching the stop and the take are the same. This allowed you to manipulate combinations of zeros and ones in this way. If we count in dollars to account for the point value for each pair, then the SL and TP of one pair will not equal the SL and TP of the other pair. Therefore, your whole theory may fall apart, because the probability of one pair reaching SL and TP will not be equal to the probability of the other pair reaching SL and TP.

 
Alexander_K2:

Mm-hmm....

If you study carefully this picture I found in ancient manuscripts:


the rabid members of this branch are a long way from the Grail (the Silent House)...

May God bless them in their eternal search for the Truth.

Amen.

What point have you reached yourself?

 
khorosh:

So you, as far as I understood, were proceeding from the assumption that since SL=TP, the probabilities of reaching the stop and the take are the same. This allowed you to manipulate combinations of zeros and ones in this way. If we count in dollars to account for the point value for each pair, then the SL and TP of one pair will not equal the SL and TP of the other pair. Therefore, your whole theory may fall apart, because the probability of one pair reaching SL and TP will not be equal to the probability of the other pair reaching SL and TP.

In this case equal probability of reaching TP and SL is important, but if the TP and SL values of different pairs are the same (I see the difference in pips in my strategy), but pairs can do whatever they want... (I do not believe in correlation or covariation (I mean currency pairs - I also have charts of pure currencies)

 
Sergey Chalyshev:

What point have you reached yourself?

I was on the top 10 and I think I'm still there. Just did a little work on 13th and 14th...

Now I'm just watching the results. It'll take another 1-2 months. Faster is not possible - such things are not simulated in any tester.

Reason: