On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 92

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Anatolii Zainchkovskii:
A*X+B
A-coefficient.
B- the free term.
Do I need to explain further what these variables do in this equation for the function?
from student times: if the result does not add up to a known result, multiply it by a factor and/or add a constant :-)
 
Mikhael1983:

Now watch your hands.

Consideration 1. If we consider the EURUSD EURGBP pair chart as an independent value without any notion that we are considering any instruments from which this very EURGBP can be expressed, then it is kind of obvious that the probability of EURGBP going "up" and "down" is the same: 50%.

Consideration 2. Nothing prevents us from considering the EN instrument chart as an independent variable. Exactly on the same grounds, with the same conclusion: the probabilities of upward and downward movements are the same.

Consideration 3. The above considerations 1 and 2 are not consistent with each other. Let us show this.

My counter i here varies from 0 to n-1, where n = 289, the value 0 corresponds to the "leftmost" count, farthest in the past, the value 288 corresponds to the "rightmost" count, the freshest in the consideration.

So. Rightmost" value of EURGBP: 0.84341. Let's check EN for some deltaEN = 0.3 (in plus and minus). What do we see? That the values of deltaEP that correspond to the increasing EN (i.e. positive deltaEN = 0.3) and declining EN (i.e. negative deltaEN = -0.3) are not equal to each other:

Question: how is this possible? If we consider that movements of some magnitude up or down for EN are equally probable, we have asymmetry in EP. If we assume that movements in an EP pair by some value are equally probable, we have asymmetry in EN.

Michael, I am sorry for your time and the time of those forum users who read this thread. So I decided to find your mistakes to put an end to this nonsense. There are two main errors. The others follow from them.

You are introducing some new custom term "variation". Perhaps you once studied calculus of variations, but skipped class and only the name remains in your head. So your "variation" is very far from the calculus of variations and has no physical/mathematical meaning at all. You add the same number to the numerator and denominator of a fraction and call it variation. You have physically different variables in the numerator and denominator. Let's make an analogy for clarity. Take a pedestrian whose speed is: 5 km/hour = 5 km/60 min = 0.0833. "Provaricate" this speed (nonsense of course, but that's exactly what you're doing) by first adding one to the numerator and denominator. (5+1)/(60+1)=6/61=0.0984 Now subtract (5-1)/(60-1)=4/59=0.0680. Next, by your method, determine the "probability" that the pedestrian will go on slower or faster. Acceleration: 0.0984-0.0833=0.0151 Deceleration: 0.0680-0.0833=-0.0153 So, by your methodology, the "probability" of a pedestrian slowing down is 2 parrots higher than the acceleration (0.0153-0.0151). You'd be surprised, but if you "vary" any fraction in this way, the "probability" of it decreasing will always be higher than increasing. How much higher depends on how much and to what to add. Guess for yourself why it is higher. If you can't guess, I'll give you a hint.

To summarise. Errors:

  1. Your "variation" is nonsense unknown in mathematics and physics. You can't add or subtract the same number to the numerator and denominator of a fraction. Especially when the variables in the numerator and denominator have different physical meaning.
  2. From your "variation" the probability does not follow in any way. They are just relative changes. But before you set their values just so - no surprise there. You're either deluded or...

I'll attach your methodology so I have something to check it against.


Proof of this is sitting on an $800 drawdown for 10 days.

The next drawdown could be the last for this account. But it's a matter of luck.

 
Focus 8's current profit is about $350. Getting ready to close, somewhere around 600 and a bit. Not at the computer (well, that's what I say, in fact I am at the computer, but I don't use it to access the forum and run terminals), so the charts are in the evening. It'll be up to 600 by the evening.
 

Grigori.S.B:

...

The next drawdown could be the last for this account. It's a matter of luck, though.

He's made more money than he's lost. You could put a stop on the amount of that drawdown.

 
The current profit is $450. Waiting, getting ready to take a profit soon )
 
b2v:
By the way, does the M5 288 calculation window move in time or is the initial calculation point fixed?

I have already written above - the window is floating

i.e. the initial calculation point is not fixed, the interval is fixed

as a result, it has to deal with two vectors, which are exactly the same as the Ito integral

for two pairs: the initial value in any point of the chart (the interval is not fixed) plus the increment for the period and we obtain the current price,

it does not matter how the price moved between the start and end point

 
Maxim Kuznetsov:

I bet it won't shrink !!! :-)

the nickname in the context of the formula is NaN at best, or even 0

of course we need to clarify - not equal to zero

X*NaN* Mikhael1983=Y*NaN* Mikhael1983

X=Y

;)

 
Grigori.S.B:

And who works with them?

I threw a lot of pictures above of the inter-exchange

It is obvious that the price goes from point A to B both times, and oddly enough, mostly in the same direction.

but not in a straight line, but with quite a wide front (only the movement inside this front distinguishes markets), which allows not only exchanges but markets to earn

further the logic is obvious

for a start I have posted screenshots of trades from A to B

I will show the result

naturally, after that,real, inter-exchange arbitrage will be shown.

 
Here we go. Profit collapsed from 450 to minus 50, i.e. at a loss. That's a shame. Expect a profit of about $600 next.
 
Mikhael1983:
The current profit is $450. Waiting, getting ready to take a profit soon )


Current 40, euro and pound are down sharply.

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