Apophenia - page 2

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Evgeniy Kvasov:

Genius!!! It makes me want to scream when people build models (which they may or may not know) and make predictions on them...

Just look at how this model correlates with price actually or not........ Who cares))))

But progress will never be made without mistakes. That is why it is so far, sooner or later, a theory will be created that describes everything accurately enough. It's just that the markets are going through an era of alchemy right now.
 

Hi!

If there was one "0" daily candle on the chart, a lot of people would trade more successfully.

The author is right, the whole chart causes the trader to poke around on the charts and consider himself a kind of analyst.

And at the same time losing money does not stop considering oneself a professional in his business.


hahahaha)))

 
Maxim Romanov:
But progress will never come without mistakes. So it's all so far, sooner or later, a theory will be created that describes everything accurately enough. It's just that the markets are going through an era of alchemy right now.

Well it's partly a controlled process. no sb of course) sometimes the crowd rules there (by the way now on the thin market))))) and not infrequently the big guys beat and hold levels volumetrically etc. When, who will connect is not clear......... i do not know, maybe in the 22nd century it will, but even so)))) players will change, this is the market

 
Head and shoulders, Fibonacci levels, etc. - are not apothecia, they are hypotheses that can be tested. And here, they are definitely apothecia (at best).
 
Dmitry Fedoseev:
Head and shoulders, Fibonacci levels, etc. - These are not apothecia, these are hypotheses that can be tested. And here it is definitely apotheosis (at best).
Unfortunately when tested absolutely all hypotheses give out 50/50, why, simply because i is independent of i+1 at any scale of any TF. => Anything at any distance (countdown) will also be independent of each other.
What's most striking is that it's pretty easy to check.
P = ((n/N)*100) will always be within 50% +- 3%.
This 3% unfortunately does not allow to cover losses from spread and commission.
I'm not talking about statistics and probability distributions.
 
Vladimir Baskakov:
You can trade without a chart at all, by the window of quotes, the correlation is normal

That's how the stock exchanges used to trade, watch the old movies. No charts, just a ticker with quotes. And nothing, some people somehow managed to be in profit.

 
Martin CHEguevara:
Unfortunately when tested absolutely all hypotheses give 50/50, why, simply because i is independent of i+1 at any scale of any TF. => Anything at any distance (countdown) will also be independent of each other.
What is most striking is that it is quite easy to check.
P = ((n/N)*100) will always be within 50% +- 3%.
This 3% unfortunately does not allow to cover losses from spread and commission.
I'm not talking about statistics and probability distributions.

Checked it, no effect - threw it away, and that's it. Another thing is when in spite of the facts not to his advantage, a man continues to adhere to some belief.

There is also a variant - the experiment shows 50/50, but the person uses some additional signs, not considered by experiments, and has advantages.

A superstition for some, a sign for others.

 
Alexey Volchanskiy:

That's how the stock exchanges used to trade, watch the old movies. No charts, just a ticker with quotes. And nothing, some people somehow managed to be in profit.

It used to be like a live supply and demand market. The trends were spreading hard and fast. And now it's a market maker's market (a specialist on stocks) of a counterparty who wants to be in profit, whatever you say. With all that entails)

 
Dmitry Fedoseev:

If it has no effect, throw it away, and that's it. Another thing is when, in spite of the facts not in his or her favour, a person continues to hold to some belief.

Another option is that the experiment shows 50/50, but the person takes advantage of some additional signs, not considered by the experiment, and has advantages.

For some a superstition, for others a sign.

It's not quite that simple... the market does have a structure, a very clear structure which is so strict that it is almost always followed.
There are only two signs of structure in the market.
And they are very, very interesting both in terms of profit and in terms of a typical example of the structure of a true natural pseudo-random time process.
 
Dmitry Fedoseev:
here
It really is a typical example of intellectual frustration. People are pounding on the same topic from different, completely ungrounded points of view.
No one has any desire to give proof of the validity of what they say. But there is a very great desire to simply disprove someone.
And almost all the branches are filled with this kind of rubbish.
These are ideal conditions for the phenomenon of apophenia - like a "petri dish" for bacteria.
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