Trend-tracking trading systems - page 8
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To know what the trend is, you need to know what the wave is. It's simple, ladies and gentlemen.
And there are only three kinds of waves. Up, down, and flat. All of these characteristics are easily detectable.
To be more precise, there are 5 Trends for Euro, I have to choose one of them to determine the direction, in which the probability of a move is high (Trend), then wait for a Corrective pullback, break a Corrective pullback and open on Trend...
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What kind of filtration is this? How do you "cut off" the correction?
I drew a chart with thick line as Trend, in which direction I am going to open, and with thin line as correction and, if it is broken, I am going to open with Trend...
Well, I only have 4, but only one is relevant. I cannot show the screen yet due to technical reasons and my own slowness.
I have a counter-trend tactics, signal by fractal curves, 1-2-3 pattern. I trade a flat with one week duration. Thus I get plenty of false signals for reversal when the trend continues.
The signal for reversal simultaneously indicates a possible trend. From here it is a matter of technique. We build a trend line and open a position against the trend only upon its break, if the reversal signal is relevant.
The result, as of April 16: out of 13 signals to buy, 12 were canceled. Now we are selling.
Trend UP
.
Price is literally winding up on the trend line .
.
Dependingon the TS used, different outcomes are possible on this gorgeous trend line trajectory:
1) you can make a lot of money;
2) you may earn little;
3) You may earn nothing;
4) you may lose nothing;
5) you may have a small loss;
6) it is possible to lose a lot;
And the trend is good!
;)
#3308Oleg, how can you reel in what you have generated? Is the trend a function of price, or vice versa? The tail is wagging the dog.
#3308
Model:
Price = signal + noise .
.
Do that decomposition -- and you'll see what we're talking about.
#3308
Model:
Price = signal + noise .
.
Do that decomposition -- and you'll see what we're talking about.
Bullshit. Show signal and noise separately.
Rubbish. Show the signal and the noise separately.
Well, bullshit is bullshit...
Show it, don't show it -- you've already made your verdict: "Bullshit." There's no other way you can and won't take it.
And I have no desire to convince anyone of anything, to prove anything and so on... I'm sick of it already... as in emptiness...
To know what the trend is, you need to know what the wave is. It's simple, ladies and gentlemen.
And there are only three kinds of waves. Up, down, and flat. All of these characteristics are easily detected.
You give me a breakdown on the Euro...
It's all bullshit :) There are no waves :) There is no Trend - it's an illusion in the minds of those who look at the chart - or rather not the chart itself, but the history of the chart ...
Yeah - there, on the history, you can see everything - wolves and trends and heads and shoulders and diamonds and triangles and any other ***what the mind of a chart watcher has invented :) on the given "History" chart...
And at this, the current moment, when the chart on the right is unknown - that's when all the 'patterns' went down... :) are gone with the wind... the real statistics of such... hmmm... so to speak signals... less than 40% is nothing :)...
It's all bullshit :) there are no waves :) and there is no Trend - they are illusions in the minds of those looking at the chart - or rather not even the chart itself, but the history of the chart...
yep... another one, then what is there?
And the postulate that history repeats itself doesn't work either?
Well, bullshit is bullshit...
Show it or not, you've already made your verdict: "Bullshit". You can't take it any other way, and you don't want to.
I have no desire to convince, prove and so on... I'm sick of it... as if in vain...
You have a view on "noise, a channel", but where is it described? Where is the basic Definition? After all, to agree with you or refute you need to know the Axioms on which you rely...
Otherwise it turns into a Show called: "You're a fool."