Peak ruble in 2018! Yes ? or..... - page 5
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... If they are increasing payments to state employees, where are they planning to get the money from?
You and I are not employees of the Ministry of Finance and we cannot know all the subtleties. But there is a reserve fund, a stabilization fund, foreign exchange reserves, perhaps something was saved somewhere, the tax inspectorate collected a lot of taxes by year-end. I do not think that they are fools enough to allow the ruble to collapse after the increase in payments.
We are not employees of the Ministry of Finance and we cannot know all the subtleties. But there is a reserve fund, there is a stabilisation fund, there are gold and foreign currency reserves, perhaps they managed to save something somewhere, the STI collected a lot of taxes at the end of the year. I don't think they are fools to allow the ruble to collapse after the increase in payments.
So it is a vicious circle, don't you know that standard increases in utility rates contribute to inflation?
The fact is that all last year the government dreamed of 60 roubles per dollar, and since it was less, why not overtake it this year?
Contingency funds are needed for contingencies, and a strong rouble hurts the government - less revenue in the treasury.
So it's a vicious circle, don't you know that the standard increases in utility rates are driving up inflation?
The fact is that all last year the government dreamed of 60 roubles per dollar, and since it was less, why not overtake it this year?
Contingency funds are needed for contingencies, and a strong rouble hurts the government - less revenue in the treasury.
All this is correct. I agree completely. I myself believe more in the dollar at 60 roubles than at 40, it is quite possible that the rouble rate is controlled by the monetary authorities before the elections and its weakening afterwards cannot be ruled out. But one should not discount the opinion of the top manager who manages USD 25bn and puts the assets entrusted to him into the rouble. In financial markets, there are always at least two scenarios to consider.
All this is correct. I completely agree. I myself believe more in the dollar at 60 roubles than at 40, it is quite possible that the rouble exchange rate is controlled by the monetary authorities before the elections and its weakening afterwards cannot be ruled out. But one should not discount the opinion of the top manager who manages USD 25bn and invests the assets entrusted to him in the rouble. There are always at least two scenarios in the financial markets.
It is quite possible that after a carry trade, investors will be interested in real assets, and in addition, due to the depreciation of the rouble, these assets will look interesting in the long term. Yes, they are interesting even now, just using the instrument that is more profitable.
Judging by the open interest indicator, the price is about to take off - let's see...
There's an upward slant on the take-off.
Here's from 58.3 and up to 57
It seems to me that there will be a ruble collapse after the election. The West will start shouting about pattassing the results and stuff. Not a good sign for investors.
The open interest indicator shows that the price is about to take off - let's see...
As a result, we opened with a gap and flew only 165 pips, forming a reversal.
According to the Ministry of Financehttps://www.minfin.ru/ru/document/?id_4=119695
Table 2.3.1 Main parameters of the baseline forecast of socio-economic development of Russia
Indicator
2017
2018
2019
2020
Urals oil price, USD per barrel USD per barrel
49,9
43,8
41,6
42,4
RUB/USD exchange rate,
RUB/USD U.S. DOLLARS
59,4
64,7
66,9
68,0
GDP growth rate (% of previous year)
2,1
2,1
2,2
2,3
Nominal GDP (RUB billion)
92 224
97 462
103 228
110 237
Consumer price index (annual average)
3,9
3,7
4,0
4,0
Exports of goods, USD billion USD
336,9
324,9
324,2
332,4
Imports of goods, USD billion USD
227,8
234,8
238,0
241,0
As you can see in the screenshot - everything is going according to plan....
You can see that today was a bounce from last year's high - is it really only going north now!?
I was a fool to short the quid in the evening - I think they will do it tomorrow - eh, I should have seen the MinFin's plans earlier...
The next trading session will be on Friday 13th - good luck to everyone.