EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 859
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Published 09:53 15.01.2010
Hello!
No high volatility could be seen yesterday. At the start of the press conference ECB President Trichet said that Greece will stay in the union. He also said that the dollar should be strong. The Eurozone economy will grow slowly and inflation will remain around 1%. Despite positive developments at the end of 2009, these factors supporting real GDP growth are temporary.
The figures from the USA came as a surprise. Unexpectedly low retail sales index (-0.3% compared to expectations of 0.4%) put pressure on the dollar. This is the lowest reading in the last 3 months. Together with it a higher number of jobless claims added fuel to the fire. Lower import prices in the US could not support the dollar. Against this backdrop, traders began to buy the yen, which strengthened slightly. This data reinforces talk that it is too early to talk about an interest rate hike in the US. On average, economists say the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September.
In the second half of the day gold and the Australian dollar started to rise, which also contributed to the euro/dollar pair's decline.
However, all yesterday's movements were very slight amidst a lot of talk and expectations from Trichet's speech and US figures. The market continues to move in a sideways pattern. It is influenced by technical factors.
The World Economic Forum warns that there is now "a significant possibility of a second financial crisis". It could be estimated at £1 trillion and its chances are 1 in 5. You can read partly on this topic in yesterday afternoon's publication.
Levels remain the same: Resistance for the single currency is 1.4570 and beyond 1.4825, support is 1.4215 and 1.4150.
Support for the Yen: 90.75, 87.75 and resistance 93.15.
Australian dollar: Resistance is about 0.9325 and support is 0.9150
Have a nice day!
MFX FIBO Group analyst Mikael Nersesov
Euro weakens sharply
LONDON, Jan 15 /Dow Jones/. 24-hour rolling charts:
Spot quotes: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot at 06.14 GMT 1.4432 91.10 1.6338 1.0232
3-day trend Up Up Down Down Down
weekly trend Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down
200-Day Scol.Wed 1.4363 92.71 1.6204 1.0543
3rd resistance 1.4604 92.25 1.6479 1.0320
2nd resistance 1.4580 92.05 1.6409 1.0285
1st resistance 1.4520 91.81 1.6358 1.0253
pivot point* 1.4501 91.36 1.6310 1.0192
1st support 1.4380 90.73 1.6295 1.0169
2nd support 1.4339 89.30 1.6239 1.0130
3rd support 1.4299 88.84 1.6192 1.0100
Spot Quotes: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot at 06.16 GMT 0.8835 131.51 1.4764 0.9291
3-day trend Down Down Down Up
Weekly trend Down Lateral trend Down Up
200-day skol. Wed 0.8872 133.04 1.5116 0.8548
3rd resistance 0.9053 133.65 1.4891 0.9404
2nd resistance 0.9027 132.68 1.4850 0.9376
1st resistance 0.8970 132.39 1.4810 0.9330
Pivot point* 0.8893 132.53 1.4779 0.9293
1st support 0.8894 131.11 1.4756 0.9201
2nd support 0.8875 130.79 1.4737 0.9171
3rd support 0.8856 130.00 1.4725 0.9138
EUR/USD during the day: The pair continues to decline from Wednesday's high of 1.4580, correcting after rising from the higher low of 1.4264 on January 8. The pair's declines will attract support as long as it trades above the 1.4380 area, which needs to be maintained in order to secure the pair's momentum in the short term and set the conditions for an upside move towards 1.4520. Only a decline in the pair below 1.4380 will offset its upside inclination, targeting 1.4339.
EUR/USD weekly chart: Downtrend.
Attention everyone, be vigilant! If the line shown on the screenshot is broken, there is a chance of seeing 1.45-1.46 again before falling to 1.40-1.38!!!
Н1
I support the speakers, I think there will be an upward correction. That's the option at the moment
is more likely, if you scan the history.
not sure if it will go that high
If we consider the daily chart, not above 1.4550 (no overshooting). On H4 the probability of no overshoot = 4+24+1+15=43%.
p.s. кто следит за GBPUSD: готовится разворот, возможен рывок к 1.6380,потом падение (цель) = 1.6050 (первая остановка).
Interested in your authoritative opinion: what are the pound's downside targets after 1.6050 ?
Интересует Ваше авторитетное мнение: какие цели падения фунта после 1,6050 ?
I don't think it will go to 1.6050