EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 852
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EUROPEAN CURRENCY MARKETS TEHANALYSIS:
Swiss franc expected to strengthen further
LONDON, Jan 12 /Dow Jones/. Moving charts for 24 hours:
Spot quotes: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot at 05.35 GMT 1.4487 92.26 1.6089 1.0185
Three-day trend Up Up Lateral trend Down
Weekly trend Down Up Down Down
200 dn scol.cp 1.4359 92.76 1.6204 1.0554
3rd resistance 1.4604 93.78 1.6305 1.0386
2nd resistance 1.4591 93.48 1.6239 1.0325
1st resistance 1.4557 92.67 1.6192 1.0253
Pivot point* 1.4490 92.19 1.6123 1.0178
1st support 1.4405 91.81 1.6040 1.0130
2nd support 1.4333 91.25 1.5958 1.0100
3rd support 1.4264 90.75 1.5896 1.0075
Quotes on the spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot at 05.37 GMT 0.9003 133.65 1.4754 0.9277
Three-day trend Up Up Down Up
Weekly trend Lateral trend Lateral trend Down Up
200 dn slope 0.8871 133.07 1.5127 0.8527
3rd resistance 0.9095 134.54 1.4891 0.9404
2nd resistance 0.9053 134.37 1.4840 0.9376
1st resistance 0.9026 133.81 1.4809 0.9325
Pivot point* 0.9001 132.98 1.4757 0.9300
1st support 0.8974 133.02 1.4725 0.9238
2nd support 0.8924 132.34 1.4677 0.9178
3rd support 0.8856 131.59 1.4570 0.9127
*The pivot point is calculated as the sum of the high, low and close levels divided by three.
- Axel Rudolph, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; axel.rudolph @ dowjones.com
- TRADING Central, +44 207 847 4042; +33 1 5528 8040; sales @ tradingcentral.com
- PRIME TASS Translation; +7 495 974 7664; dowjonesteam @ prime-tass.com.
Fibo's comment
Published 09:29 12.01.2010
Hello!
The US dollar continued to decline yesterday following Friday's drop, reaching 1.4553, the highest since 16 December. Weak US jobs data reinforced the view that interest rates are likely to remain low for some time to come.
James Ballard, president of the St Louis Fed says that the Fed's liquidity programmes have not been inflationary, and that the US will see positive job growth in early 2010.
Yesterday's slight weakening of the Swiss franc followed a speech by Philippe Hildebrand. The new chairman of the Swiss National Bank, said that the country should resist "any excessive strengthening" of its currency.
The strength of the franc could "reflect the damage against the euro caused by growing concerns about the risk of default in Greece", said Jenny McKeown at Capital Economics. "If such worries continue (and possibly spread to other parts of the eurozone) the franc could come under further pressure in the coming months."
The Australian dollar is likely to continue strengthening against the dollar. Antje Prefke at Commerzbank, said: "The Australian dollar is useful with relatively high interest rates" and expects the central bank to continue to raise rates. In addition, the recovery in China creates hope for an increase in Australian exports.
It follows from the above that the US will not raise interest rates in the coming months, which will entail a weak dollar. The AUD on recovery from recession and increased exports will continue to rise. The situation is more difficult for the euro as Greece is dragging the Eurozone down, but this will likely not outweigh the problems in America and the euro will also continue to rise.
The next big resistance for the single currency is around 1.4570 and further at 1.4825.
Support for the Yen is around 91.25/90.75.
The Australian dollar could test resistance around 0.9325/30.
.
Have a nice day!
Analyst of MFX FIBO Group, Nersesov Michael