EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 853
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EUR/USD during the day: Market participants betting on the rise of the pair continued to support it on Monday, the pair broke through 1.4485 and headed for new three-week highs. Further rise of the pair to the resistance area 1.4591-1.4604 is possible, but rise to the area of 1.4681-1.4696 is not excluded this week. On the downside, the pair is likely to encounter support while trading above 1.4405. Below that is the low of 1.4264.
EUR/USD on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
USD/JPY during the day: Consolidating after the high of 93.78 on Friday, the pair met support at 91.81. If the pair breaks through 92.67, it will confirm the bearish failure at 91.81. In this case, the pair is likely to rise to 93.48 and 93.78. With the trade below 91.81, the hopes of the pair's recovery can be abandoned, control will again get the market participants interested in its short-term decline, and the pair will aim at 91.25.
USD/JPY on the weekly chart: Uptrend.
GBP/USD during the day: The pair's rise from the low of January 7 at 1.5896 towards the target level of 1.6239 is facing challenges. Monday's rise was capped at 1.6192. The pair needs to break it in order to strengthen the upside bias and open the way to 1.6239. In this case, the pair will be able to rise to the resistance at 1.6305, which is located at the neck of the "Head & Shoulders" pattern. On the downside, the pair will meet support at 1.6040 and only a break below 1.5958 might give control again to the short-term market participants betting on the pair's decline.
GBP/USD on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
USD/CHF during the day: Monday's sharp drop of the pair to 1.0130 continued the decline of the pair from Friday's high at 1.0386 and the short-term market participants interested in declines are in control. Consolidating, the pair may reach 1.0253, but as long as it trades below that level, further weakness to 1.0100 and then 1.0075 is more likely. A trade above 1.0253 is necessary for an improvement in the pair's tone, which will open the way to 1.0325.
USD/CHF on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
EUR/GBP during the day: Market participants who are interested in the rise of the pair remain in control. Earlier it rose steadily from Friday's low of 0.8924. The pair has an opportunity to surpass the high of January 7 at 0.9026. If the pair breaks this level, it might aim at the high of December 30, at 0.9053. A further rise towards 0.9095 is not excluded either. Trading below 0.8974 may jeopardize the upside bias and the pair may aim at 0.8924.
EUR/GBP on the weekly chart: Lateral trend.
EUR/JPY during the day: The market continues to be dominated by participants who are interested in the rise of the pair. It hit a new five-week high of 134.37 on Monday, but then declined. On a downward correction, the pair will meet support as long as it trades above Friday's low of 132.34. If it trades above 133.78, the pair will target the high of 134.37 again. If it falls below 132.98, however, the pair will be controlled in the short term by investors betting on the downside and it will target 132.34.
EUR/JPY on the weekly chart: Lateral trend.
EUR/CHF during the day: Market participants betting on the pair's decline are in control, despite the pair's consolidation from the 10-month low of 1.4725 on Monday. As long as the pair trades below 1.4809, a decline is more likely. If downward pressure on 1.4725 resumes, the pair may continue to decline towards the projected target level of 1.4677. Trading above 1.4809 will open the way to 1.4891.
EUR/CHF on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
AUD/USD on the day: A rise above 0.9238 is expected to renew pressure on the high of 0.9325. With a further rise, the pair could target the 2009 high of 0.9404 reached in November. If the pair falls below 0.9238, it will continue to correct down to 0.9127.
AUD/USD: An uptrend.
- PRIME TASS Translation; +7 495 974 7664; dowjonesteam @ prime-tass.com.
покупать свою валюту будут????и когда ориентировочно???
sell... why buy for a lot of money?
Better to print and sell.
The exchange rate will fall. Exporters are happy.
;)
и куда после болтанки пойдем???
most likely upwards but possibly with a pullback downwards (conclusion: sitting on the fence)
Which is not enough for Russia!
Что для России маловато будит!
Ukraine will get nothing at all...
I'm ready to carry Catherine's ashes in a gold buggy for selling Alaska, or I'd have to serve there too.
TOKYO, January 13. /Dow Jones/. The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen in Asian trading on Wednesday amid comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser. However, some traders said the rise in the U.S. currency could be short-lived as the Fed is unlikely to raise its key interest rate now.
Earlier on Wednesday, Plosser said that "interest rate hikes should occur well before the unemployment rate or other indicators of undercapacity fall to acceptable levels".
The comments prompted Asian hedge funds to buy the dollar and pushed the dollar/yen pair to 91.07 as of 04.50 GMT against 90.95 on Tuesday night in New York.
Nevertheless, many investors believe that the US economy is not strong enough for the Fed to start raising interest rates soon, and such expectations could put pressure on the dollar. Last week it was reported that the number of non-farm jobs in the US fell by 85,000 in December.
"Fed officials have indeed shown a propensity to tighten policy recently, but the reality is that a Fed rate hike is not possible right now," said Minoru Shioiri, senior dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.
Investors will be watching the 10-year US Treasury bond auction at 6pm GMT, Shiori said. If bond demand is weak, the dollar could fall because such a result would signal a drop in demand for bonds from foreign investors. Some traders expect the dollar/yen pair to head towards the 90.00 area in the near future.
There is growing talk that investors may not be able to continue to actively buy assets. The People's Bank of China said on Tuesday it was raising the level of required reserves in renminbi for domestic banks by half a percentage point from 18 January.
"The announcement pushed down commodity prices and worsened investor sentiment, leading to increased demand for the yen, considered a safe haven currency," said Yuichiro Harada, senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank. - If Chinese stocks continue to fall on the back of this statement, risk aversion could linger in the currency market for a long time."
The Shanghai Composite Index, an indicative Chinese stock index, was down 2.32% at 3,198.01 as of 04.50 GMT.
The Euro/Dollar pair traded almost unchanged at 1.4487 versus 1.4489 the day before and the Euro/JPY was at 131.90 versus 131.73. The outlook for the single European currency is also negative as investors' risk appetite has declined.
The ICE dollar index, which reflects the value of the US currency against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies, stood at 76.991 against 77.011.
-Author Takashi Mochizuki, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6269-2782; takashi.mochizuki@dowjones.com; translation by PRIME-TASS; +7 495 974 7664; dowjonesteam @ prime-tass.com.
From the long-term forecasts)))
The value of the EUR/USD currency pair in 2010 will largely depend on monetary, fiscal stimulus measures in major countries. I believe that from the beginning of the year to April-May the euro has a good chance to rise against the American dollar to the level of 1.4700-1.4800.
This is because the major economies will continue to stimulate their economies by injecting liquidity in early 2010. It is then expected that the leading economies will begin to roll back their monetary stimulus measures from the middle of 2010.
Therefore we can conclude that from April to May 2010 the US dollar will begin to rise globally and that the EUR/USD ratio will fall to 1.3800 by the end of 2010
I opened a couple of long term lots with EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the beginning of the year.)