EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 1519

 
strangerr писал(а) >>


A gap might well be, but most likely we will work it back, and opening a sell before breaking the previous low at 1.3434 makes no sense either.


If there were no positions, yes, but if the guy had a buy with the loss, even if Uncle Kolya is only on the horizon... then how?
 
Fibo >>:


если не было поз, то да, а ежли у чела бай с убытком, пусть даже дядя Коля лишь на горизонте... тоды как?


Well, I have a buy price of 21pp since yesterday, maybe I will catch a 152pp loss, so what should I do, you cannot take profits only all the time, when you open a position you have to calculate not how much profit you will earn, but how much you are ready to lose.
 
Hi . Here's what resistance worked. The yellow fan with the top from July 7, 2008

Here it is on the weekly chart at full size. The most sensitive stochastic is in the oversold zone, so it may stay there (according to the history) till all the lines are close to it. Though, another surge may occur if we touch 50% support (around 1.3-1.31, like we did in October-December 2008), maybe even your levels of 1.4-1.45. But we will see about that a little later.




But on the four-hour chart.





I think we tested it twice and headed down to the possible global target 1.200, with stops near 1.3300-50 and 1.300
How do you like this variant? For now I settled till 1.3450. And there we will see. But it seems to me that the movement is strong and the momentum is directed downward for the pair (it has broken through two possible movement channels (blue and red) and now we will probably move in the lower level channels). The overbought zone has already been visited by all stochastics up to the dumbest one.
 

ok. i too think the nearest target is 1.32-1.31 and possibly up to 1.23 on the daley 5th wave.

 
I disagree, your prognoses are too gloomy.))) You scare me.)))
 
strangerr >>:
Не соглашусь, слишком мрачные у вас прогнозы.)))

gloomy for what? For the euro, yes, but not for the quid. For the world in general? We don't rule it. We just have to choose which trains to jump on (we have two of them, one going up and one going down). We will see how we pass the resistance of the nearest lows next week and then we will get upset.

 
strangerr писал(а) >>
I disagree, your predictions are too gloomy.))) You scare me. >>))


You're probably just a bull and you don't see the downward trend... If that happens, you should print the chart and turn it upside down - maybe you'll see something...
 
Fibo >>:


ты, наверно, просто бык и не видишь движухи вниз. в таких случиях нуна распечатать график и перевернуть его,- могет чой-то и увидишь...

10 points

 
I'm also going to put up a watchmaker for the big picture.



This TF shows the possibility of a move upwards. But I don't think it is high. I looked through the history - stochastics may be down for a few days.



I.e. the conclusion is that there might not be a big rise.
 

The 5th wave started at 1.3817 and dropped 320 pips. The trend is powerful, which is confirmed by the bearish weekly "grip by the belt" candlestick with almost no shadows. In that case the correction usually does not exceed 38.2%, i.e. about 100 pips (if you consider that you went into it). Then at the best case we have 1.35 + 0.01 = 1.36.
And I think this express will go down to 1.23

Reason: