Not looking for investors or trying to sell an expert :) just interested in opinions

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On USDJPY from initial deposit of 10000 dollars in the period from the 1st of January 2005 till present day the program in my tester has shown profit near 700%.
It is more than 200% per annum, with a drawdown of less than 40%, at first glance, the result is quite decent...

I want to know if I made some mistakes when testing and whether it makes sense to spend time and put it on demo or real trading for testing or if there are obvious errors that indicate that it will spend all the money at the first opportunity.

In the attached archive the result from the tester for 3 years
Files:
testerresult.zip  29 kb
 
rusinozemtsev:
On USDJPY from initial deposit of 10000 dollars in the period from the 1st of January 2005 till present day the program in my tester has shown profit near 700%.
More than 200% per annum turns out, with a drawdown of less than 40%, inprincipally, at first glance, the result is quite decent ...

I want to know if I made some mistakes when testing and whether it makes sense to spend time and put it on demo or real trading for testing or if there are obvious errors that indicate that it will spend all the money at the first opportunity.

In the attached archive the result from the tester for 3 years

Put it on demo for a month, and post the result in a month.
 
rusinozemtsev:
With initial deposit of $10000 on USDJPY from January 1, 2005 to present day the program in the tester has shown profit near 700%.
This is more than 200% per annum, with a drawdown of less than 40%, at first glance is a decent result ...

I want to know if I made some mistakes when testing and whether it makes sense to spend time and put it on demo or real trading for testing or if there are obvious gaps that indicate that it will spend all the money at the first opportunity.

In the attached archive the result from the tester for 3 years


Low quality simulation, a lot of mismatch errors. Download quotes as described here: 'History Center updated - free history of minute quotes from 1999' It's better to test with MM off (fixed lot). The real ROM is difficult to calculate otherwise, and it seems to be low, somewhere around 5 pips, which is not enough for a real account. And is it really more convenient to use H4 on the news?

The Expert Advisor is clearly designed for a carry trade, it only opens buy (on swaps). And that is why it is losing in recent months, when the yen is strengthening. And it looks like it is far from being over, therefore in the nearest future it may very probably lose both on demo and on real.

 
goldtrader:
rusinozemtsev:
On USDJPY from the initial deposit of $10000 during the period from January 1, 2005 to present day the program in the tester has shown profit near 700%.
It is more than 200% of profit per year with a drawdown less than 40%.

I want to know if I made some mistakes when testing and whether it makes sense to spend time and put it on demo or real trading for testing or if there are obvious errors that indicate that it will spend all the money at the first opportunity.

In the attached archive the result from the tester for 3 years


Low quality simulation, a lot of mismatch errors. Download quotes as described here: 'History Center updated - free history of minute quotes from 1999' It's better to test with MM off (fixed lot). The real ROM is difficult to estimate otherwise, and it seems to be low, somewhere around 5 pips, which is not enough for the real account. And is it really more convenient to use H4 on the news?

The Expert Advisor is clearly designed for a carry trade, it only opens buy (on swaps). And that is why it is losing in recent months, when the yen is strengthening. And it seems to be not over yet, so in the nearest future it may very probably fail both on demo and on real.

As for the quality of modelling - time to open a position is selected only by completed bars, so it's unlikely it will have any effect, but I'll give it a try nevertheless. As for the news - it has nothing to do with them, just a random name left from the old version of the program :)

What is MOJ ?
 
And another thing about keri trade, it is true - it never opens against swaps, but in 3 years of testing the market for the yen was in different phases, in the test it did not lead to a disaster, although undoubtedly this point requires improvement as periods of decline can be quite long and lose money on them as now is an unacceptable waste :)
 

The title of the thread made me laugh... imagined a line of investors... and the author, I don't want your money :-)

On the merits... nonsense... no chance...

 
About 700% profit per annum is a very controversial question. If we take your max drawdown 36186.34 as 40% of theoretically allowed drawdown (as recommended in most sources of money management), then to be sure that advisor will not lose deposit you should have start-up capital = 90465.85. Thus, net profit 70472.86 corresponds to the yield = 77.89% for the whole period, and this is quite a modest result.
 
Analitik:
About 700% profit per annum is a very controversial question. If we take your max drawdown 36186.34 as 40% of theoretically allowed drawdown (as recommended in most sources of money management), then to be sure that advisor will not lose deposit you should have start-up capital = 90465.85. Thus, net profit 70472.86 corresponds to the yield = 77.89% for the whole period, and this is a rather modest result.
Yeah, that's a sensible idea :)
 
rusinozemtsev:
What is the OIM?
The expected payoff, i.e. the average payoff per trade. To avoid self-deception (if the Expert Advisor is for itself), testing should be done with a constant 0.1 lot. And if this MMR is less than 1 point, we have almost no chance to use it on real trading, because slippage, requotes, quotes shifts and other things will decrease the MMR by 1-3 points. And what will be left?
 
goldtrader:
rusinozemtsev:
What is MOJ?
Expected payoff, i.e. the average payoff per trade. To avoid self-deception (if the Expert Advisor is for itself), testing should preferably be done with a constant 0.1 lot. And if this MMR is less than 1 point, we have almost no chance to use it in real trading, because slippage, requotes, quotes shifts and other things will decrease the MMR by 1-3 points. And what will be left?
Mat. Expectation with a fixed lot of 0.1 is 9.1... really not much
 
KimIV:

The title of the thread made me laugh... imagined a line of investors... and the author, I don't want your money :-)

On the merits... nonsense... no chance...

Well, it's not a problem if you have a working product and it's not a problem to find the money yourself. The problem is getting the product to work :)
As for "no chance" - not yet evening, we will refine and recycle if necessary
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