Why is it that when TC becomes obvious to most market participants it stops working? - page 8

 

If we worked in the market and on the machine, everything would be easier.

 
fasklo:

If we worked in the market and on the machine, everything would be easier, but while we work for a brokerage company, even classic indicators are overdrawn.

"The more you work, the more attention you get..." You don't have to worry about that.

You don't "work" for a brokerage company, go to a decent company that gives you real access to the real market. But then don't cry that you were wronged in the market. In modern brokerage companies the conditions are absolutely hothouse.

In general, the topic is about nothing. 99.99% of those present will never create a strategy that will be interesting for "most market participants", and therefore it will never stop working. In other words, the fears are completely unfounded.

 
Candid:

Why a starting deposit of 10,000 and not, say, 5,000? The profitability will immediately double :) .

In other words, what were the considerations in choosing the risk level?

A 10K deposit is in default. If we take 5K, the drawdown of $1728 would be 35%. I would consider it excessive for real. And even so, the yield will be about 12% per annum, i.e. in fact it is the Central Bank rate. If we proceed from an acceptable level of risk, which imho corresponds to the report presented in the screenshot, the profitability of 6% per annum is of no interest.
 
goldtrader:
The deposit is 10K default. If you take 5K of it, the drawdown of $1728 would be 35%. I consider it prohibitive for a real account. And even so, the yield will be about 12% per annum, i.e. in fact it is the Central Bank rate. If we proceed from an acceptable level of risk, which imho corresponds to the report presented in the screenshot, the profitability of 6% per annum is of no interest.

So the risk assessment in this case is purely intuitive.

By the way, I got 12% for 10,000 if it was a fixed lot of course.

 
Candid:

So the risk assessment in this case is purely intuitive.

By the way, I got 12% for 10,000 if it was a fixed lot of course.

Why intuitive? The lot is constant 0.2 (I didn't hide the parameters, there are only two, no optimisation). In accordance with screenshot report drawdown $ 1728 at 10K start deposit that corresponds to 17.3% if drawdown happened at the beginning of trading, but it could happen. According to my criteria such a TS is not for real trading.
 
goldtrader:

Why intuitive? ...

"Non-intuitive" would mean having an objective justification as to why 17.3% drawdown is high and 34.6% is prohibitively high. And which drawdown would be "normal" and why. As far as I understand there is no objective justification in this case, there is a subjective feeling, i.e. an intuitive evaluation.
 

to:goldtrader

And I think that the strategy you presented is very slavish. Usually tested with 0.1 lot at 10k depo, such settings mean that MO win in your case is 13.29 pips, which is already an ace in itself. Also, who prevents you from capitalising the chart? Also, a good strategy may be executed using several symbols simultaneously and as a result we obtain a very impressive balance curve:

Here is the result of the same strategy I showed earlier, but for many instruments at once. Taking into account that we can see only pips, the result is very good. To capitalize on such a curve is a pleasure.

I realized a long time ago that one can't rely on one strategy to make too much profit. The market is too efficient to allow such a grail to exist. The only way to create a grail is to combine mediocre but multi-instrument strategies into one.

 
Candid:
As far as I understand it, there is no objective justification in this case, there is a subjective feeling, i.e. an intuitive assessment.
You are right, as far as the maximum drawdown is concerned I am guided by subjective feelings. The loss of 20-25% of my deposit makes me psychologically uncomfortable.
 
C-4:

to:goldtrader

And I think that the strategy you presented is very slavish.

Robust perhaps, but not very profitable.

C-4:

to:goldtrader

... The MO win in your case is 13.29 pips, which is already ice in itself. Besides, who's stopping you from capitalizing the chart? And another thing, a good strategy may be executed using several symbols simultaneously. The result is a very impressive balance curve:

Here is the result of the same strategy I showed earlier, but for many instruments at once. Taking into account that we can see only pips, the result is very good. It is a pleasure to capitalize on such a curve.

The MO is even 14 points (28.58/2), on the real market it will be 2-3 points lower, but there should be something left. Capitalization (reinvestment) will add a little profitability but not much. At the same time we will proportionally increase the risks, as well as when using other instruments (by the way, the results on them are also positive, but a little worse). Although, they may not increase, we have to check it, thank you for the idea. Somewhere I have led a dialogue into my swamp :) It is not worth it.

C-4:

I realised a long time ago that there's nothing to expect for super profits from a single strategy. The market is too efficient to allow such a grail to exist. The only way to create a grail, is to combine mediocre, but working on many instruments strategies into one.

Words of gold! They should be put at the top instead of the banner.

And to answer the question of the thread, I agree with Yurixx's detailed exposition.

 
C-4: The only way to create a grail is to combine mediocre but multi-instrument strategies into one.

Yes, that's a good idea. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

In fact, one of the ways is a multi-currency strategy. But it's not so easy to make it intelligently...

Reason: