FOREX - Trends, forecasts and implications - page 762
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Not here the trick is different, in a 50/50 dynamic equilibrium the market can wander anywhere.
If there is a skew to one side, however, the higher the chance of a reversal. At 53/47 the chance is not very high. At 70/30 the probability of a reversal is very high.
Crow's Sloboda could not have failed to burn, as all its inhabitants are insured against fire.
Okay.
There are 100 people standing and they want to buy 100 kg of potatoes.
One buys a kilo
the other will buy two kilos...
in order to have enough for everyone, the price has to be HIGHER. Right?
More/less is not correct. Maybe those 52-53% are small position holders and each has only $100. We need relative numbers. In the amount of money.
I told you - on ALL OPEN POSTS, i.e. 52-53% MONEY in the bays. On the pound this is the 52\48 picture with minor changes throughout the fall from 7191.
You can't know for sure where most (not market participants, but most positions in terms of money) are pointing their ears - the Forex market is decentralized. One trade will have a statistic of 26% in SELL, the other will have 84% in SELL.
But the futures market is not decentralised)
That was pretty much the picture on the loonie around 0.95. 83\27
Okay.
There are 100 people standing and they want to buy 100 kilos of potatoes.
One buys a kilo
the other will buy two kilos...
in order to have enough for everyone, the price has to be HIGHLY raised. Right?
There is no need to do anything, prices go up on their own, buyers choose liquidity at low prices and liquidity remains on the market at high prices.
There is no option to have enough for everyone if there are fewer goods than buyers. If there are more goods than buyers, it is impossible to keep the price high (if there is no collusion) and it moves towards the level of profitability.
But this reasoning is adequate only in case of potatoes, which are bought for consumption.
Forex is 90% speculative market, and every buyer sometime becomes a seller. Hence, the pending sales (or open interest).
If there is 70% open interest in buying, it means that potentially they will be hidden somewhere, those potential sales.
Okay.
There are 100 people standing and they want to buy 100 kilos of potatoes.
One buys a kilo
the other will buy two kilos...
in order to have enough for everyone, the price has to be HIGHER. Right?
It depends on how many potatoes you have in stock and how many kilos they want))))
If you have a ton and they want 100 kilos, you don't increase it, but if it's the other way round...)
There is no need to raise anything, prices rise on their own as buyers choose liquidity at low prices and liquidity remains on the market at high prices.
There is no option to have enough for everyone if there are fewer goods than buyers. If there are more goods than buyers, it is impossible to keep the price high (if there is no collusion) and it moves towards the level of profitability.
But this reasoning is adequate only in case of potatoes, which are bought for consumption.
Forex is 90% speculative market, and every buyer sometime becomes a seller. Hence, the pending sales (or open interest).
If there is 70% open interest in buying, it means that potentially they will be lurking somewhere, those potential sales.
So, in relation to the quid today this does not apply? )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
ANY buying and selling is speculation, whatever it is.
Potatoes are bought for consumption, and the quid for what? To save, to insure their savings, so that they can buy those same potatoes for tomorrow.
It is impossible to know for sure where most (not market participants, but most positions in monetary terms) have set their ears - the Forex market is decentralised. One trader will have a statistic of 26% in SELL, the other will have 84% in SELL.
So it doesn't apply to the quid today? )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
ANY purchase or sale is speculation, whatever it is.
Not any speculation, if a person buys a dollar to pay back a loan, what kind of speculation is it, he buys for consumption.
Another thing is that there are a lot of speculators on the Forex market, so many that the actual trading with delivery is a drop in the ocean.
But it is important to understand that the problem is not real, but the real trade is organized in the market with delivery of the currency.
You do not have any idea how speculation is structured without delivery?
If you do not know what to do, overnight is a rollover with swaps, in fact every day you close your position and open a new one, prolonging the delivery time for another three days.
If the dealing company does not make the overnight delivery for some reason, they will bring a truckload of currency to your office.
Not any, if a person buys a dollar to pay back a loan, then what kind of speculation is it, he buys for consumption.
Another thing is that there are a lot of speculators on the Forex market, so many that the actual trading with delivery is a drop in the ocean.
But it is important to understand that the problem is not real, but the real trade is organized in the market with delivery of the currency.
SZS: Just a tip for your thinking, overnight.
If one buys a quid "for consumption", speculation is on the other side of the transaction.
I don't consider forex at all, it's pure speculation, watch futures, don't get bogged down)
If one buys a quid "for consumption", speculation is on the other side of the deal.
I don't consider forex at all, it's pure speculation, watch futures, don't bother)