Swing Trading ideas - page 51
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Update Time: 02 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.65
The greenback's selloff following the Federal Reserve's dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday's release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July's bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend Medium Term decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.
On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.
Data to be released later:
Australia AIG manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, China caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada market holiday, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
Update Time: 05 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1836
As euro's intra-day 'wild' swings in New York session had ended with price falling sharply from 1.1899 to 1.1834 on hawkish comments by Fed's Vice Chair Clarida, suggesting early correction from July's 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 would add credence to this view, 1.1771/73 later.
Only a move above 1.1899 risks one more rise, however, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below 1.1944 ahead of Fri's key U.S. jobs report.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, France industrial output, U.K. Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC Vote Cut.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.
Update Time: 05 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.61
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.
On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to the usual weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Fed Governor Waller (voter) will speak on "Central Bank Digital Currency" before an virtual event at 14:00GMT.
Update Time: 06Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1826
Despite moving in relatively narrow range on Thursday, euro's weakness to 1.1829 (Europe), then intra-day break there suggests early correction from July's 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended last week at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 (upbeat U.S. jobs report perhaps) would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 1.1753.
Only above this week's 1.1899 high (Wednesday) shifts risks to upside for re-test of 1.1909, break would extend said corrective upmove to 1.1940/44.
On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of economic data in European morning, please refer to our EI page for details.
Update Time: 09 Aug 2021 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.20
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.
Data to be released today:
China PPI, CPI, Swiss unemployment rate.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.
Update Time: 11 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1718
Euro's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1710 (New York) suggests price would briefly penetrate 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March), however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1650/55 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later this week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1742 signals temporary low is in place and yields stronger retracement to 1.1768 but 1.1808 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI and Federal Budget.
Update Time: 12 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1741
Despite resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month low of 1.1707 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1753 due to broad-based long liquidation in usd after in-line U.S. CPI data suggests temporary bottom is made and consolidation is seen before re-test of 2021 trough at 1.1705, loss of momentum would limit weakness to 1.1675/85.
Only a daily close above 1.1768 res will risks stronger correction to 1.1819/29 later.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, inflation forecast, Japan corporate goods price, Australia consumer inflation
U.K. RICS housing price balance, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, Italy trade balance, EU industrial production, U.S. jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and PPI.
Update Time: 13 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1736
Despite euro's narrow move in subdued Thursday's session following rebound from Wednesday's fresh 4-month trough at 1.1707 to 1.1753, outlook remains bearish for re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705, loss of momentum should keep price above projected sup at 1.1653.
Only a daily close above 1.1768 (Monday's high) dampens bearish outlook and risks stronger correction to 1.1819/29 early next week.
On the data front, euro are countries will release a slew of second-tier eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Update Time: 16 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1795
Fri's rally above previous res at 1.1768 to 1.1804 in New York due to broad-based usd's weakness after downbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests medium-term downtrend has made a low at Wed's fresh 4-month bottom at 1.1707 and further gain is envisaged after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price at 1.1857.
Only a daily close below 1.1768 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk decline towards 1.1724.
Data to be released next week :
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization, industrial output, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
U.K. Rightmove house price.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Monday.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Aug 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1776
Although euro's rebound from last Wed's 4-month trough at 1.1707 to 1.0804 (Friday) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, Monday's sideways swings would bring further consolidation before one more rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1857.
A daily close below 1.1753 signals correction is over and risks weakness to 1.1724, break, 1.1707 again.
The euro zone will release a slew of eco. data at 09:00GMT including Q2 GDP, please refer to our EI page for details.