A-B-C-D Trade - page 177
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Australian Rate Decision at 04:30, held rate and its Central Bank's stance is viewed as "dovish". They said growth likely to disappoint. U.K. and Europe inflation for May said to be easing due to lower oil prices.
AUD/USD got as far as the 88.6% retrace fib prior to data. Post-data showed gain beyond the 100%, to the APF's Upper_ML2. This pivot low is the same as a 161.8 extension, using high 1.07890 to low 1.07111. See 4-hour for smoother view.
EUR/USD dropped to the 138.2, and 100% same as Low.
This is a continuance of the 4-Hour chart with APF and fibs. As mentioned by one FX media outlet, gold is expected to drop on USD strength.
This is due to perception that gold and oil at these levels are risk assets. USD and CHF are considered safety assets. JPY is also safety, but has unfortunate multi-faceted problems now.
Attached chart shows swings A-B, with possible Swing C made at the 127.2 resistance of 1497.84. Break of the 138.2 constitute break of support, as that was previous pivot area.
Interior fibs of APF will ultimately assist with S&R.
We're zooming in on the 1-hour XAU_USD (mimics gold futures). We have a fib extension plot that resembles one of the recent examples on a currency pair.
Low = July 1st 1477.99 High = July 4th 00:00 1492.25
127.2 extension = 1496.13 July 4th 08:00 RSI(4) = 91 -- this is 1st peak
138.2 extension = 1497.70 July 5th 00:00 RSI(4) = 77 --this is 2nd peak
That is the BAJA bearish divergence.
Plot retrace fibs low to high. The 23.6 = 1493.24 which is where price is now.
Entry was at the 138.2 if trader figured out extension plot. Otherwise 15-min EFT SELL trigger gets him/her in at 1496.33.
S/L above high of 1497.95 + cushion.
The 38.2% retrace fib of 1490.33 is also the previous support area of June 27th.
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We had the wrong chart up with fib plot on EUR/USD. High is at Swing C last Friday 1.45666 and Low = Friday's FE 161.8 1.44944.
The European open is showing bearish action. There was a BAJA bullish divergence with 2nd dip 04:30 which was dragged by AUD/USD after rate decision.
That bottom was a 138.2 extension from above plot parameters.
Forgot to mention Moody's warning that Chinese banks look to be in worse condition due to difference in accounting methodology.
U.K. and EU data 08:00 - 09:00, then U.S. data at 14:00 Check your economic calendar. This week has U.K. and EU rate Decision, as well as U.S. NFP and Unemployment.
gold stays above 1497 guru ??? can reverse to high again ??
james,
We are not gurus, and we also cannot make predictions upon requests. Here is breakout of the gold CFD XAU_USD.
After divergence sent to 23.6% retrace, consolidated until further data.
You posted your question at 09:58 GMT. That candle closed above the resistance high of 1497.90. Therefore trading breakout, must have extension levels in mind for take profit. Also move S/L to at least B/E after hit of 127.2.
Just hit 161.8 1510.20 during 13:00 candle. As mentioned, U.S. data at 14:00. This is exit point, unless target was another extension below.
This is wide pic of XAU_USD, and same chart as previously posted. The support had been identified as the 138.2% based on the extension down.
We repeat the High = 1557.99 and Low = 1510.65
June 27th price action hit the 138.2 and bounce twice. Price went back up to the general area of the Low. July 1st saw the 161.8 extension hit. Bounced above the 138.2 and never came back below that support.
When we posted the zoom-in chart, the 23.6% retrace is the same as the 138.2 of 1492.57. The probe below on June 27th went to 1490.40.
Price just hit the 161.8 extension as detailed on last post. This is also the Low.
EUR/USD Low = 1.44952 and High = 1.45520
After 14:00 U.S. data missed projection, Pair closed out the European session expecting docile movement.
Around 18:00 it was reported that Moody's downgraded Portugal. Volume multiplied and sent EUR/USD spiking down to the 261.8 extension. This is also the MurreyMath 4/8th level.
Pairs has since retraced significantly and is now approaching the 78.6 retrace level of 1.44674. This is also the Asian Low area of 1.44583.
Looking ahead, only 10:00 data is of high-impact. Check your economic calendar.
XAU_USD was in divergence, rising while EUR/USD was falling.
Volume normally picks up at 06:00 GMT. Amid the Portugal downgrade, the Euro is under pressure. The 07:00 period has just touched 1.4402, near the previous low of 19:00 candle.
Now testing hard, after brief bounce. Plot low/high for extensions, and remember 10:00 data.
This is observation during real time for study purposes.